Monday, June 22, 2009

Political Barbecue Season

July 1st is the kick off of the political barbecue season in Canada which lasts till Labour Day. I assume that we are not going to see an election, but that we are going to see the MPs for the Liberals and Conservatives very active in the public eye all summer long.

With the rise of the Liberals federally and the decline of the Conservatives, there will be a lot of jockeying for public support. ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberals and the Conservatives in close to a dead heat in seats in the country, 122 to 116.

What I find interesting is that in federal politics the debate in the media has become strongly Harper v Ignatieff. The NDP is not really make much of an impression lately, they have been in a rut for months. I do not get any sense that the NDP is going to make a strong showing on the BBQ circuit.

My sense is that in an election Ignatieff will be able to defeat the Conservatives if there is an election in the fall or the winter. Ignatieff is doing better leading the party than I expected and he is certainly a strong presence in the media. But can he win a majority?

I think that over the fall and winter of 2009/10 the Liberals could win a majority. I see this coming from a large swing of seats in Quebec if there is the sense of a Liberal government happening. I also see Ignatieff making break throughs in BC. I see him gaining ground in Ontario as well. These three factors could be enough to put them over the top.

Harper is suffering from looking mean spirited, trying to hard, and looking desperate. He is not winning people's hearts and minds in Canada.
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