Looking at the 85 ridings

I can not claim to have done the work to get this data, though Elections BC has the data for anyone that would like to use it. I put together the spreadsheet from the UBC ESM voter transition matrix, the beta test version that is not yet formally publicly available. Werner Antweiller of the UBC ESM gave me access to help find any errors in it.

He will be taking it live and available to the public in the near future, the new version will also have an important change from past versions, you will be able to work with non-voters as part of the mix as well.

Sacha Peter has pointed out that the transition of polls is not 100% accurate because some polls have new boundaries and have been split between ridings. The only riding where this might have made a difference is in Maple Ridge Mission which I have as the NDP winning and he has the Liberals barely winning.

I have the Liberals at 48 (up two) and the NDP at 37 (up four)

In 2005 the Liberals won 18 of their seats by less than 10% and the NDP 15. With the transposed boundaries this changes to Liberals 16 and the NDP 19 - the NDP is defending more territory than the Liberals.

The 'safe' seats for each party in 2005 was as follows, 28 Liberal and 18 NDP. With the 2009 boundaries this changes to Liberals 32 and NDP 18. The Liberals are much closer to the target number of 43 than the NDP is.

So the new boundaries on the surface give the NDP more seats that they would have won in 2005, but at the same time gives the Liberals a larger safe core of seats.

Constituency	Political Parties
	LIB	NDP	GRP	OTR
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	20.40%	65.00%	10.30%	4.30%
Surrey-Green Timbers	29.60%	63.60%	4.00%	2.70%
Kootenay West	26.50%	62.40%	7.60%	3.50%
Surrey-Newton	33.10%	59.80%	5.30%	1.80%
Nelson-Creston	26.70%	58.90%	12.30%	2.00%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	30.00%	57.30%	11.30%	1.50%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	32.00%	56.90%	7.20%	3.80%
Surrey-Whalley	30.40%	56.50%	7.00%	6.00%
Victoria-Swan Lake	30.20%	56.10%	11.50%	2.20%
Vancouver-Hastings	32.10%	54.80%	9.00%	4.20%
North Coast	39.60%	52.30%	6.20%	1.90%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	39.80%	51.80%	8.40%	0.00%
Vancouver-Kingsway	40.30%	51.50%	6.30%	1.90%
New Westminster	37.40%	51.30%	9.40%	1.90%
Equimalt-Royal Roads	37.00%	51.20%	10.20%	1.60%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	37.10%	50.80%	9.80%	2.30%
Skeena	44.10%	49.50%	4.60%	1.80%
Vancouver-Kensington	42.90%	49.30%	6.00%	1.80%
Port Coquitlam	43.40%	48.40%	6.90%	1.30%
Burnaby-Edmonds	40.50%	48.10%	9.70%	1.70%
Juan de Fuca	36.30%	47.60%	10.60%	5.40%
Surrey-Fleetwood	44.60%	47.60%	4.60%	3.30%
Delta North	42.90%	47.50%	7.70%	1.90%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	44.20%	47.30%	5.30%	3.20%
Cowichan Valley	42.50%	47.30%	7.50%	2.80%
Fraser-Nicola	42.50%	47.20%	8.20%	2.10%
Cariboo North	45.80%	47.10%	5.30%	1.80%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	44.50%	47.00%	6.50%	2.10%
Vancouver-Fairview	43.00%	46.80%	9.00%	1.20%
Vancouver-West End	37.40%	46.30%	13.80%	2.60%
Burnaby North	45.00%	45.50%	7.80%	1.70%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	43.60%	45.40%	7.50%	3.50%
Nanaimo	42.50%	45.40%	9.90%	2.20%
Kamloops-North Thompson	43.20%	45.30%	7.10%	4.40%
Saanich South	45.50%	45.30%	7.20%	2.10%
North Island	42.80%	45.20%	7.40%	4.60%
Maple Ridge-Mission	44.10%	44.50%	8.80%	2.50%
Burnaby-Lougheed	46.90%	44.10%	7.90%	1.00%
Kootenay East	47.90%	43.80%	8.30%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	30.20%	43.50%	25.70%	0.60%
Stikine	46.60%	43.50%	5.50%	4.40%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	46.60%	43.30%	8.50%	1.60%
Comox Valley	45.70%	43.10%	9.20%	2.00%
Vancouver-Fraserview	47.70%	42.70%	6.60%	3.00%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	48.80%	42.00%	6.80%	2.40%
Surrey-Tynehead	48.70%	41.60%	5.40%	4.20%
Boundary-Similkameen	45.70%	40.80%	9.50%	4.00%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	46.50%	40.70%	7.80%	5.00%
Surrey-Panorama	50.70%	40.30%	7.80%	1.20%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	45.40%	39.10%	12.40%	3.10%
Parksville-Qualicum	51.90%	38.40%	8.10%	1.50%
Vancouver-Point Grey	46.30%	37.60%	14.90%	1.20%
Vancouver-False Creek	48.70%	37.50%	11.40%	2.30%
Saanich North and the Islands	43.70%	37.50%	15.30%	3.40%
Chilliwack-Hope	52.10%	37.40%	8.50%	2.00%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	54.50%	37.40%	6.10%	2.10%
Penticton	49.70%	37.10%	10.40%	2.80%
Kamloops-South Thompson	52.40%	36.80%	7.20%	3.70%
Prince George-Mackenzie	49.30%	36.60%	7.60%	6.60%
Nechako Lakes	50.20%	36.20%	8.00%	5.50%
Shuswap	46.70%	35.40%	5.90%	12.10%
Prince George-Valemount	45.70%	35.30%	7.80%	11.20%
Abbotsford-Mission	53.80%	34.70%	9.20%	2.30%
Peace River South	56.30%	34.00%	9.70%
Langley	52.20%	33.60%	12.30%	1.90%
Chilliwack	54.80%	33.60%	8.40%	3.20%
Vernon-Monashee	43.40%	33.40%	7.10%	16.10%
Richmond East	57.30%	33.20%	7.50%	2.00%
Vancouver-Langara	56.50%	33.00%	8.00%	2.40%
Richmond Centre	58.60%	32.50%	7.70%	1.20%
Abbotsford West	58.30%	31.30%	6.60%	3.80%
Kelowna-Mission	54.70%	31.30%	12.50%	1.50%
Richmond-Steveston	59.30%	31.20%	8.30%	1.20%
Westside-Kelowna	52.30%	30.60%	11.70%	5.40%
Abbotsford South	58.90%	30.20%	7.70%	3.20%
Kelowna-Lake Country	51.70%	30.00%	9.60%	8.70%
Surrey-Cloverdale	60.40%	30.00%	8.40%	1.20%
North Vancouver-Seymour	57.30%	29.40%	11.80%	1.50%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	59.10%	29.10%	9.70%	2.10%
Peace River North	60.20%	26.90%	7.10%	5.80%
Surrey-White Rock	58.00%	26.40%	10.60%	5.10%
Delta South	37.50%	24.00%	4.70%	33.90%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	48.20%	22.70%	27.10%	2.00%
Vancouver-Quilchena	67.20%	21.00%	10.40%	1.40%
West Vancouver-Capilano	67.30%	17.90%	13.30%	1.60%

Afghanistan

OK, I always need to wrap my brain around how to deal with the issue of Afghanistan as I am a pacifist. I am enough of a pacifist that I will not buy a federal government savings bond because that money will in part fund the military. To me I can not reconcile killing humans with remaining true to my faith as a Quaker.

That said, I do still live in this world and I enjoy the luxury of not having my faith tested in real terms as I would in other places such as Afghanistan.

I found out this week that an old university friend is now a Canadian Forces Chaplain. I have no idea if he will be posted to Afghanistan, but he has an interesting blog called the Mad Padre. He is also the person I know with the driest humour ever, he would make Aki Kaurismäki look like the king of slapstick.

He has had some interesting posts about the deaths of the Canadians in Afghanistan.

Canada and NATO involvement in Afghanistan is very different than the involvement of foreign troops in the country. This is the first time someone has come into the country to defend the people from human rights abuses and to allow a civil society to be built. The posts at the Canada-Afghanistan Blog and at Terry Glavin's Blog are showing the sort of real change that is happening on the ground.

To condemn our involvement in Afghanistan is to condemn the use of military for the defense of basic human rights. If there is such a thing as a just war, it is the one in Afghanistan. I can not condemn and I can not support and remain in a limbo.

Interestingly, the left in Canada that has so loved Obama, is not pushing for Canada to help him in his quest to build a democratic, just and civil society in Afghanistan. I suspect the left in Canada will soon condemn the core of the Obama/Democratic global foreign policy.

To leave now would be to admit defeat in the face of fascism. Admitting defeat in Afghanistan will not only destroy hope there, but in many countries in the world where fascism is on the rise, places like Iran and Sudan.

I believe that the opposition to the war in Afghanistan is easy in Canada because most people they are a bunch of illiterate, brown skinned, tribal zealots that are "not like us". I remember on September 11th 2001 pointing out to people that mass deaths are common in the world and happen on a 9/11 scale once a month. The response I got from Canadians is "they are not like us".

I do not understand how any person in Canada that believes in the existence of the military and supports humans rights does not support the Canadian mission in Afghanistan. There is a global conflict between fascism/totalitarianism and human rights/democracy.

US housing melt down

I have been thinking about an unintended consequence of the housing meltdown in the US. In the US your interest on your mortgage is tax deductible but your rent is not.

People that are losing their houses may also end up paying a lot more in income taxes. A family of four earning a combined gross of $100 000 and formerly paying $2500 a month in mortgage interest may now have an extra $30 000 of taxable income. This could be a steep increase in costs and further reduce the ability of people to consume the US out of the recession.

I am simply stunned at how badly things are going in the US and so glad that in Canada we had not set up things in the same manner.

Kwikwetlem First Nation v. British Columbia (Utilities Commission), 2009 BCCA 68

This decision was released yesterday, as was one in relation to the Carrier Sekani and Kemano. I reading them at the moment to see what the implications are for the BCTC ILM project and Alcan's Kemano powerplant.

The first and foremost thing I take from the decisions is that meaningful consultation with First Nations means inclusion at the start of the project with the ability to have significant input scope and scale of the project.

In Kwikwetlem First Nation v. British Columbia (Utilities Commission), 2009 BCCA 68, clearly the problem is not the consultation process with in the BC Environmental Assessment process, but with the certificate of public convenience and necessity issued by the Ultilities Commission. The CPCN sets an alignment for ILM that is to restrictive without consultation with First Nations.

Where do things go from here? Can BCTC proceed with the ILM EA process with the CPCN? Can the Utilities Commission issue a CPCN that fits with meaningful consultation?

NLAKA'PAMUX NATION TRIBAL COUNCIL
Court Halts $700 Million Transmission Line Project

VANCOUVER, BC, PRESS RELEASE--(Marketwire - Feb. 18, 2009) - The BC Court of Appeal today ruled that BC Hydro and the BC Transmission Corporation's proposed $700 million high-voltage transmission line from the Interior to the Lower Mainland cannot proceed until First Nations are properly consulted and accommodated for infringements to their Aboriginal title and rights.
The case involves a joint appeal of the Nlaka'pamux Nation Tribal Council, the Upper Nicola Indian Band, the Okanagan Nation Alliance and the Kwikwetlem First Nation of a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity issued by the BC Utilities Commission to BCTC for the transmission line in August, 2008. In allowing the appeal and suspending the Certificate the Court found that the "decision to certify a new line as necessary in the public interest has the potential to profoundly affect the appellants' Aboriginal interests. Like the existing line (installed without consent or consultation), the new line will pass over land to which the appellants claim stewardship rights and Aboriginal title." The Court found that the Commission must ensure that adequate consultation and accommodation occurs before it issues a Certificate that enables the transmission line to proceed and concluded that the Commission had failed to do so.
The Court ordered the Utilities Commission to ensure that the First Nations are fully consulted and accommodated regarding the decision to build the new line. Consultation must include a study of alternatives to the proposed project, including the development of alternative local power sources or reducing demand by increasing prices. The transmission project cannot proceed until those consultations are concluded.
"This is a huge victory for the Nlaka'pamux Nation and our neighbours," said Chief Bob Pasco, Chairman of the Nlaka'pamux Nation Tribal Council. "Our territory has been carved up by this and other transmission corridors. The existing line was put in with no regard for our title and rights and now they were trying to force the new line on us. For years we've been working hard to ensure we are properly consulted and accommodated. BC Hydro and the Province have been told by the Court of Appeal that it's no longer business as usual-they have to come to the table and seriously engage with us on the effects of the lines, other alternatives and how we'll be accommodated."
Grand Chief Stewart Philip of the Okanagan Nation Alliance said, "today's court decision makes clear yet again that the staus quo is neither respectful or workable. Real concrete change must occur immediately to the current environmental assessment and permitting processes. Shared decision-making through full recognition of Aboriginal Title and Rights and stewardship responsibilities is the path that must be followed."
Chief Tim Manuel of the Upper Nicola Band said, "based on our victory today at the Court of Appeal, BC Hydro and the Province must finally start to take us and our concerns seriously. For far too long they've been demanding that we jump to their timelines and objectives. The Court has clearly told them that if they want to do something in our territory they have to respect our Aboriginal title and our role as stewards of our land."
For a copy of the decision: http://www.courts.gov.bc.ca/jdb-txt/CA/09/00/2009BCCA0068.htm
/For further information: For further comment: Chief Bob Pasco, Chairman NNTC: (cell) (250) 371-0775; Chief Tim Manuel, Upper Nicola Band (cell) (250) 378-1986; Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, Okanagan Nation Alliance (604) 684-0231

Quick comments on the BC budget

I am sick this week so I have not been able to pay attention to the details of the budget as much as I would normally would have, but here are some quick comments:

Is the $495 000 000 deficit realistic? There is no budgetary margin for error as in the past and that is not good in my opinion. There remains a significant danger that revenues may be worse than expected, but I see that the revenue projections look realistic. I really dislike having the government put capital expenditures outside of the budget. In 2009/10 this adds another $3 000 000 000 to the provincial debt.

I am happy to see the carbon tax continue, it is the single most effective way to place a price on green house gases. Cap and Trade in Europe is leading to some odd results and seems to be a bureaucratic nightmare.

Government does not spend enough time focusing on doing more with less, there is no central drive to find innovative and efficient ways to accomplish the work of government. My hope is that this budget and the downturn will push government towards innovation in delivery of services.

Going forward with the Highway #37 electrification is a very good thing, I am glad to see it happen. The MLA that can take credit for keeping this going is Ralph Sultan, there are few MLAs that understand economics and BC as well as he does. Not only will this transmission line allow for development in the north west for mining companies and forestry, it will also open up the area for the development of green power.

I am glad to see that the budget does not have a whole bunch pork barrel capital projects.

Stephen Harper's Longevity

Stephen Harper is now the 13th longest serving Prime Minster in Canadian history. There have been a total of 22 since 1867 making the average term 6 years and 160 days.

Baring some dramatic change, Stephen Harper is not going to be a footnote in Canadian politics, he will have lead us in a definable era.

On January 8th 2011 he passes Alexander Mackenzie. On February 4th 2011 he passes Mike Pearson. On April 22 2011 he passes RB Bennett. By the realistic time of the next federal election, he will be the 10th longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history. If he lasts till the next election day, Oct 12th 2012, he will have served for more than the average length of time for a PM in Canada.

By 2012 14 MPs will be older than 70. 40 more will be past the 65 year old retirement age, one of them being Michael Ignatieff. One in seven MPs will be a pensioner and most of them are unlikely to run again. In the 2012 election we are likely to see as many as one in three MPs not run again. The 2012 election could be one of the biggest changes in membership in the House of Commons in a long time.

After the 2012 election, the typical MP will have been born in 1964. Right now it is 1957, the year Stephen Harper was born.

In the Senate there will have 25 more retirements by election day in 2012. There will also be 28 more senators over the age of 70, I am not an actuary, but I believe we should expect to see a number of deaths in the senate as well as retirements. BY the time of the next election, unless provinces and the opposition accept democratic reform for the Senate, the standings in the Senate will be 61 Conservatives, 41 Liberals and 3 others. Harper will have made a strongly Conservative senate unless people start to take him up on reforming that house.

At the moment less than 1/3 of the current MPs have served in a federal parliament that was not a minority government. By the date of the next election, it will have been over eight years that there has been no majority government. Currently the longest period we have gone with minority governments was from June 1962 to June 1968. For many MPs currently serving, their idea of what the political culture of the House of Commons is will be one of minority governments.