There are a number of ballot questions that will resonate with the public, but which ones will be the ones that carry the day on election day?
If the issue is the economy, this is bad for the NDP. The general public in BC is simply not willing to believe that the NDP can manage the economy in BC. If this is the defining issue in the election, I would expect the Liberals to benefit from people voting this time that did not vote last time.
If the issue is the environment the result is a basically a wash for the two parties. The NDP certainly has not done much to place themselves as leaders on this issue with their opposition to action on climate change issues. At the same time the general public does not believe the Liberals are really green at all. For the voters that consider this issue as important, I see a large number of them that have supported the NDP in the past sitting out this election. I see the Greens getting support from the Liberals and NDP on this issue.
For people that have opposition to the Olympics as their big issue all voting for the NDP. The problem is that these people already voted NDP in 2005.
If your big issue is healthcare, seniors or schools, I see your voting going NDP. Once again the problem is that the NDP already has these votes.
Crime has suddenly become a big issue with all the gang stuff in Metro Vancouver. The NDP are unlikely to get a lot out of this issue. The Liberals may get some non-voters to come out and vote for them on this issue.
A deficit budget - no one believes the NDP could do better on this than the Liberals. The Liberals may lose some fiscal hawks on this as they sit on their hands this election.
Leadership - Campbell versus James. Neither one is strong pull for their party, though I could give the edge to Campbell keeping in mind the irrational and visceral hatred of him by the left.
I am curious, is there anyone out there that can think of an issue that will make the election for the NDP? I am serious, I can not think of it.
What I see is that the NDP has no single strong issue that they can either gain voters with or use to get Liberal supporters to stay at home. I see the Liberals as being able to grow their vote this election and the NDP holding even or losing a bit. I see the gap between the NDP and the Liberals on election day being about 8 to 11 percentage points.
Friday, February 27, 2009
No Election Stockmarket for the BC Election
I saw the announcement first on Sacha Peter's blog, and then read it on the website. I missed out taking part in the Federal election one because of all the health issues with dieing parents while having a baby in the house.
I am hoping that Werner gets the new format of election forecaster up on the website soon, it is a very good tool to predict what is happening in the election. The latest version should include some of his research into the impact of voters choosing to vote or not vote in an election.
I am hoping that Werner gets the new format of election forecaster up on the website soon, it is a very good tool to predict what is happening in the election. The latest version should include some of his research into the impact of voters choosing to vote or not vote in an election.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Evergreen Line Annoucement
It is good to hear that the federal government is contributing money towards the Evergreen Line. The extra $350 000 000 being offered by the federal government will cover about 1/4 of the current estimated construction costs. This brings the federal contribution to just a bit more than what the provincial one of $410 000 000 and Translink's $400 000 000.
The federal announcement leaves the project short about $173 000 000, that assumes that there will be no rise in the costs. My hope is that Translink uses the model used for the Canada Line. The public private model has kept construction costs in line, though Translink could be on the hook for costs if the ridership numbers do not come as expected.
Most rapid transit projects suffer from two major problems in the planning process - underestimation of capital costs and overestimation of ridership. This problem is so consistent that could can almost estimate the cost overruns. If you are interested, take a look at the work of Bent Flyvbjerg at Aalborg University in Denmark. The best way to stop this problem is a public private partnership. Max Bazerman at Harvard has done interesting work into public decision making on large projects.
A fully public built Evergreen Line has a realistic potential of capital cost of around $2 000 000 000. The business case makes some assumptions as to ridership, 22 900 000 by 2021 and 31 800 000 by 2031. I have no way to judge if these numbers are accurate, but going on past experience of light rail systems elsewhere, the numbers are likely high. What happens if ridership numbers are not met?
It is clear given the geography of the Metro Vancouver that more light rail transit is needed because the region simply can not move the people on the roads via car and bus as is needed. All the top rapid transit needs not only in BC, but in Canada, are located in the lower mainland. I say this because people in Victoria keeping raising the need to rail rapid transit as a priority, but it is not nearly close to some of the needs in the lower mainland now:
The Northshore does not have the population, or projected growth in population, to make any sense for rail transit. Ladner, Tsawwasen and the ferry terminal are too spread out from each other and too low a population to justify rail transit.
Metro Vancouver has been expanding the system on a consistent basis year in and year out since the mid 1980s. There is at least another generation of work that needs to be done before things even get close to being enough.
The federal announcement leaves the project short about $173 000 000, that assumes that there will be no rise in the costs. My hope is that Translink uses the model used for the Canada Line. The public private model has kept construction costs in line, though Translink could be on the hook for costs if the ridership numbers do not come as expected.
Most rapid transit projects suffer from two major problems in the planning process - underestimation of capital costs and overestimation of ridership. This problem is so consistent that could can almost estimate the cost overruns. If you are interested, take a look at the work of Bent Flyvbjerg at Aalborg University in Denmark. The best way to stop this problem is a public private partnership. Max Bazerman at Harvard has done interesting work into public decision making on large projects.
A fully public built Evergreen Line has a realistic potential of capital cost of around $2 000 000 000. The business case makes some assumptions as to ridership, 22 900 000 by 2021 and 31 800 000 by 2031. I have no way to judge if these numbers are accurate, but going on past experience of light rail systems elsewhere, the numbers are likely high. What happens if ridership numbers are not met?
It is clear given the geography of the Metro Vancouver that more light rail transit is needed because the region simply can not move the people on the roads via car and bus as is needed. All the top rapid transit needs not only in BC, but in Canada, are located in the lower mainland. I say this because people in Victoria keeping raising the need to rail rapid transit as a priority, but it is not nearly close to some of the needs in the lower mainland now:
- There is clear and immediate need for rail transit out to UBC - following Broadway to UBC needs to move along in the plans now.
- The Expo Line needs to go out to Langley
- There is a need for a WestCoast Express on the south side of the river going out to Chilliwack.
- There is a need to eventually build the Canada Line all the way to the Deas Island tunnel - there is a major working centre there that needs better transit and a major entertainment centre as well.
- There is a need for a rapid transit line to go from Edmonds to Annacis Island and then on through to North Delta and to Newton.
- A line along 41st and then 49th from UBC through to Metrotown.
- Extending the Evergreen line should eventually go out towards Pitt Meadows
- There should be a short branch from Braid station running past all the big box and industrial in south Coquitlam. Eventually this could run over the new Port Mann bridge
The Northshore does not have the population, or projected growth in population, to make any sense for rail transit. Ladner, Tsawwasen and the ferry terminal are too spread out from each other and too low a population to justify rail transit.
Metro Vancouver has been expanding the system on a consistent basis year in and year out since the mid 1980s. There is at least another generation of work that needs to be done before things even get close to being enough.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Vaughn Palmer's Column Today
Here is his column today. I point it out because I still suffer from the human weakness of of vanity, I am trying to get over this. Vaughn has based his column around some of the stuff I have posted here.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Good Column by Ken Coates in the National Post
I took some history courses from Ken Coates many years ago at UVic, he was the most impressive, intelligent and thoughtful professor I had at the university.
I was surprised to see an opinion column by him in today's National Post. He makes a very strong and clear argument for why all Canadians should stand with the Jews. His column really hits home the clear under current in the western world - no one else will stand up and protect the Jews in Israel from the threat of extermination.
Why is the west not demanding and pressuring the Arab states and the Palestinians to stop their demonetization of the Jews and Israel? How long will we sit by and accept vast human rights abuses in Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Gaza?
I was surprised to see an opinion column by him in today's National Post. He makes a very strong and clear argument for why all Canadians should stand with the Jews. His column really hits home the clear under current in the western world - no one else will stand up and protect the Jews in Israel from the threat of extermination.
Why is the west not demanding and pressuring the Arab states and the Palestinians to stop their demonetization of the Jews and Israel? How long will we sit by and accept vast human rights abuses in Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Gaza?
Monday, February 23, 2009
Look at the May 12th Election
With 11 weeks to go to till the election, one would expect most of the candidates of the major parties to be nominated and ready to run, but that is not the case. Take the numbers with a grain of salt as they are changing constantly at the moment.
The Liberals are at 66 candidates nominated. Seven of the remaining 19 are in ridings the party is competitive in.
The NDP meanwhile is at 52 candidates. In only five of the remaining ridings to have nominations is the NDP really in the race.
What I am reading from this is that the NDP is focusing their election campaign much more defending the ground they won in 2005 than trying to win the seats they need to get to a majority. Certainly that would fit the ongoing lack of a strong government in waiting image from the NDP and the lack of a clear definition on their part as to what the election will be about.
I suspect that the realistic number crunchers inside the NDP are telling the inner circle that things are looking bad for the party that the election has to be focused on holding as many seats as they can. They can do the same sort of math I do with polling numbers, they can see the scenarios that show the NDP losing ten to fifteen seats.
In 2001 the NDP did not choose to try and target a core of seats to hold. Since they did not do this, the party was reduced to two seats instead of the five to eight they could have won.
In 2009, short of some monumental disaster by the Liberals, there is no electoral scenario I can envisage that has the NDP winning the election. The NDP is at a precarious point and need to decide what sort of defenses they to build in this election to ensure that the party does not fall below 25 MLAs. The nature or our electoral system is brutal when the gap in popular vote between the winning party and the second place party is anywhere close to what the polls have been showing in BC.
The Liberals are at 66 candidates nominated. Seven of the remaining 19 are in ridings the party is competitive in.
The NDP meanwhile is at 52 candidates. In only five of the remaining ridings to have nominations is the NDP really in the race.
What I am reading from this is that the NDP is focusing their election campaign much more defending the ground they won in 2005 than trying to win the seats they need to get to a majority. Certainly that would fit the ongoing lack of a strong government in waiting image from the NDP and the lack of a clear definition on their part as to what the election will be about.
I suspect that the realistic number crunchers inside the NDP are telling the inner circle that things are looking bad for the party that the election has to be focused on holding as many seats as they can. They can do the same sort of math I do with polling numbers, they can see the scenarios that show the NDP losing ten to fifteen seats.
In 2001 the NDP did not choose to try and target a core of seats to hold. Since they did not do this, the party was reduced to two seats instead of the five to eight they could have won.
In 2009, short of some monumental disaster by the Liberals, there is no electoral scenario I can envisage that has the NDP winning the election. The NDP is at a precarious point and need to decide what sort of defenses they to build in this election to ensure that the party does not fall below 25 MLAs. The nature or our electoral system is brutal when the gap in popular vote between the winning party and the second place party is anywhere close to what the polls have been showing in BC.
Women candidates in the upcoming election
In 2005 the NDP had a problem with women managing to win nominations to run as a candidates in the election. When the dust settled on election day, the Liberals had 10 women in their caucus and the NDP only 7. The Liberals had a further four more candidates that were close versus the NDP only having one.
To deal with this seeming systemic problem within the NDP, the party reserved seats in which women would be the candidates in 2009. So how are things looking 11 weeks before the election?
In the 34 ridings the NDP "currently holds", there are 32 candidates nominated, nine of them are women.
In the 42 Liberal ridings this is six out of 36 nominated. Clearly the NDP is doing better than the Liberals in having women candidates in their 'safe' seats, though the Liberals still have six nominations left and the NDP only has two, so it is possible that the Liberals may come closer to the NDP.
When one looks at the ridings where a parties nominated candidate has a reasonable expectation of getting elected, things look a bit different. The Liberals have 11 women candidates with a reasonable expectation that they might win and the NDP has 11 as well. The Liberals have four women that are running that are not realistically going to get elected. The NDP has nine women in the same situation.
There are only two people running the May 12th election that have any chance of getting elected and are not a New Democrat or Liberal and those are independent Vicki Huntingdon in Delta South and Green leader Jane Sterk in Esquimalt Royal Roads.
On May 13th I expect us to wake up with 20 women elected as MLAs - 9 New Democrats and 11 Liberals.
To deal with this seeming systemic problem within the NDP, the party reserved seats in which women would be the candidates in 2009. So how are things looking 11 weeks before the election?
In the 34 ridings the NDP "currently holds", there are 32 candidates nominated, nine of them are women.
In the 42 Liberal ridings this is six out of 36 nominated. Clearly the NDP is doing better than the Liberals in having women candidates in their 'safe' seats, though the Liberals still have six nominations left and the NDP only has two, so it is possible that the Liberals may come closer to the NDP.
When one looks at the ridings where a parties nominated candidate has a reasonable expectation of getting elected, things look a bit different. The Liberals have 11 women candidates with a reasonable expectation that they might win and the NDP has 11 as well. The Liberals have four women that are running that are not realistically going to get elected. The NDP has nine women in the same situation.
There are only two people running the May 12th election that have any chance of getting elected and are not a New Democrat or Liberal and those are independent Vicki Huntingdon in Delta South and Green leader Jane Sterk in Esquimalt Royal Roads.
On May 13th I expect us to wake up with 20 women elected as MLAs - 9 New Democrats and 11 Liberals.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Bill Bennett from East Kootenay
I know Bill has gotten in trouble with his 'words', but I like him because he is open and clear on who he is and what he stands for. To meet him is to meet a man with a passion for his community, for his part of the world, and for BC in general.
We are lucky to have him as an MLA because he is not a bland, nice, staged and managed politico. We used to have a whole stable of people like this in BC, but over the years the nature of politics has pushed them out of the system.
Bill Bennett is the sort guy I would trust to tell me if something is going to fly or not and if he will get behind it, but he has been pilloried in the media for tell people what he thinks.
I fear that Kootenay East is going to go from having a passionate and strong MLA to a door mat opposition MLA, though I do not know that Troy Sebastian would be someone like that but given the NDP of late the odds are much more likely in the door mat direction.
Lest you think I am purely partisan, Corky Evans is another man with passion, though I know Bill is not a fan. In the new crop of New Democrats I see it in John Horgan, Michael Sather and Shane Simpson. Bill Barlee was also a passionate MLA for the NDP.
It would be a loss for BC, the Kootenaies and the Liberals for Bill Bennett to lose on May 12th.
We are lucky to have him as an MLA because he is not a bland, nice, staged and managed politico. We used to have a whole stable of people like this in BC, but over the years the nature of politics has pushed them out of the system.
Bill Bennett is the sort guy I would trust to tell me if something is going to fly or not and if he will get behind it, but he has been pilloried in the media for tell people what he thinks.
I fear that Kootenay East is going to go from having a passionate and strong MLA to a door mat opposition MLA, though I do not know that Troy Sebastian would be someone like that but given the NDP of late the odds are much more likely in the door mat direction.
Lest you think I am purely partisan, Corky Evans is another man with passion, though I know Bill is not a fan. In the new crop of New Democrats I see it in John Horgan, Michael Sather and Shane Simpson. Bill Barlee was also a passionate MLA for the NDP.
It would be a loss for BC, the Kootenaies and the Liberals for Bill Bennett to lose on May 12th.
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