Thursday, March 12, 2009
Missing comments
There are some comments that should have appeared on here, but due to some flakiness with blogger, they seem to have disappeared, I apologize.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
So what is happening on the right wing in BC Politics?
In the last two elections there has not really been any significant right wing parties running in the BC Elections.
In 2001 there was an attempt to create the Unity Party out of the ashes of Social Credit and BC Reform, but they did not manage to do much. Their leader was in the debate but they only managed to run 56 candidates and averaging only a bit above 4% of the vote where they ran. BC Reform ran 9 candidates, the Conservatives ran 6, and Social Credit 2 achieving a combined vote of almost nothing.
In 2005 the right wing did even worse. The Conservatives ran 7 candidates of which their candidate Beryl Ludwig in Shuswap actually managed to come third. Another 25 candidates ran for 10 different right wing parties and managed a total of just over 4000 votes.
Now we are at 2009 and suddenly there seems to be one right wing party emerging, the BC Refederation Party. We are just three months before election day and the party seems to have found 40 candidates already. The BC Conservatives only have 8 at the moment. BC ReFed is ahead of the Greens in selecting candidates.
The issues ReFed may get some traction on are the carbon tax in rural BC and the anti-aboriginal vote.
Their policy statements on their website are 'amusing' at best, in general they point to someone that does not seem to understand how our system of governance works. As examples, we have a constitution for BC. They also do not understand the underpinnings of our whole system of law and governance and show this when they suggest removing the powers of the Lieutant Govenor.
Now that said, their primary concern that the federal government has too much power and there needs to be more powers in the hands of the provinces is a fundamentally sound idea. Canada would be better off as a country if the provinces had more powers, this is in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. As an example, there is no useful benefit in having the federal government have any role in healthcare. Fisheries would be better managed by the provinces so that it could be done a more whollistic manner than in bizzare world we have now where some fish are federal and some are provincial.
Is Refederation BC the party to accomplish this? Highly unlikely because they look and sound like the cranky end of the federal Reform Party. They want an official langauge in BC, we seem to have managed well enough provincially not regulating what languages people can use.
I suspect the upper limit of BC ReFed is about 10% of the vote in this election if they manage to run a full slate of candidates, the media pays any attention to them and no one says anything too crazy. Their impact on the election will be zero this time around, the cranky right wing sat out the 2005 election so the Liberals should not lose too much vote to BC ReFed. If Mike Summers manages to get the party to do anything, it will be to bring people back to the polls that sat out the last election.
In 2001 there was an attempt to create the Unity Party out of the ashes of Social Credit and BC Reform, but they did not manage to do much. Their leader was in the debate but they only managed to run 56 candidates and averaging only a bit above 4% of the vote where they ran. BC Reform ran 9 candidates, the Conservatives ran 6, and Social Credit 2 achieving a combined vote of almost nothing.
In 2005 the right wing did even worse. The Conservatives ran 7 candidates of which their candidate Beryl Ludwig in Shuswap actually managed to come third. Another 25 candidates ran for 10 different right wing parties and managed a total of just over 4000 votes.
Now we are at 2009 and suddenly there seems to be one right wing party emerging, the BC Refederation Party. We are just three months before election day and the party seems to have found 40 candidates already. The BC Conservatives only have 8 at the moment. BC ReFed is ahead of the Greens in selecting candidates.
The issues ReFed may get some traction on are the carbon tax in rural BC and the anti-aboriginal vote.
Their policy statements on their website are 'amusing' at best, in general they point to someone that does not seem to understand how our system of governance works. As examples, we have a constitution for BC. They also do not understand the underpinnings of our whole system of law and governance and show this when they suggest removing the powers of the Lieutant Govenor.
Now that said, their primary concern that the federal government has too much power and there needs to be more powers in the hands of the provinces is a fundamentally sound idea. Canada would be better off as a country if the provinces had more powers, this is in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. As an example, there is no useful benefit in having the federal government have any role in healthcare. Fisheries would be better managed by the provinces so that it could be done a more whollistic manner than in bizzare world we have now where some fish are federal and some are provincial.
Is Refederation BC the party to accomplish this? Highly unlikely because they look and sound like the cranky end of the federal Reform Party. They want an official langauge in BC, we seem to have managed well enough provincially not regulating what languages people can use.
I suspect the upper limit of BC ReFed is about 10% of the vote in this election if they manage to run a full slate of candidates, the media pays any attention to them and no one says anything too crazy. Their impact on the election will be zero this time around, the cranky right wing sat out the 2005 election so the Liberals should not lose too much vote to BC ReFed. If Mike Summers manages to get the party to do anything, it will be to bring people back to the polls that sat out the last election.
Aboriginal Voters and the 2009 BC Election
In British Columbia there is a strong vote for the NDP on Indian Reserves, though not all Indian Reserves. A lot of bands that are members of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs do not encourage voting so turn out on these reserves tends to be very, very low.
It is not hard to track voting on reserve in most of rural BC because there are polls dedicated to the reserves. First Nation reserves where people do vote in elections have typically voted 95% for the NDP. As an example, poll 64 in 1996 in Skeena (Kitamaat Village) the NDP got 249 votes and other four candidates got 14 votes.
In 1996 the NDP won the election by three seats, the NDP win over the Liberals in three seats was less than than the NDP vote on reserve. Specifically these were Skeena, Cariboo South, and Bulkley Valley Stikine, if they had gone the other way in 1996, Gordon Campbell would have won. The NDP lost a three ridings in that election because the on reserve voters boycotted the election.
What will happen this time around? There has never been a government in Canadian history as willing to respectfully partner with the First Nations as the current BC Liberal government. The BC Liberals have given the First Nations their first real access to resources outside of the control of Indian Affairs. They are doing what the Skeena Native Development Society report Masters in Our Own House - The Path to Prosperity said was needed.
The new bill coming forward to recognize aboriginal title and rights will also set the stage for BC First Nations to begin self governance. Self governing First Nations need to out from under Indian Affairs, so far only Sechelt and the Nisga'a have achieved this. The BC Liberals are giving First Nations in BC the path out of the generations of victimhood the Indian Act has impossed on aboriginal people, they are giving them a path to free them from Soviet collectivist model that has failed.
How will the NDP respond? At best they can say they agree with Gordon Campbell, but their track record on aboriginal issues for the last four years has been silence or an embarassing public dispute over the Tsawwassen Treaty. The NDP needs this core consituency to win a number of rural ridings in this province and can only hope that they will vote NDP out of habit and not base their vote on who is best for aboriginal people.
Let us say there is a shift of 1/2 of the aboriginal votes from the NDP to the Liberals. This shift is enough to put both Cariboo ridings, North Island, Skeena and Fraser Nicola into the win column for the Liberals. But it does not end there.
Here is the shocker, if the aboriginal vote splits 50/50 in this election, the NDP will lose North Coast.
If aboriginal people vote for the BC Liberals because of how well the New Relationship has gone so far and new bill on aboriginal title, the BC Liberals will take five to six ridings off of the NDP on May 12th from that vote alone.
It is not hard to track voting on reserve in most of rural BC because there are polls dedicated to the reserves. First Nation reserves where people do vote in elections have typically voted 95% for the NDP. As an example, poll 64 in 1996 in Skeena (Kitamaat Village) the NDP got 249 votes and other four candidates got 14 votes.
In 1996 the NDP won the election by three seats, the NDP win over the Liberals in three seats was less than than the NDP vote on reserve. Specifically these were Skeena, Cariboo South, and Bulkley Valley Stikine, if they had gone the other way in 1996, Gordon Campbell would have won. The NDP lost a three ridings in that election because the on reserve voters boycotted the election.
What will happen this time around? There has never been a government in Canadian history as willing to respectfully partner with the First Nations as the current BC Liberal government. The BC Liberals have given the First Nations their first real access to resources outside of the control of Indian Affairs. They are doing what the Skeena Native Development Society report Masters in Our Own House - The Path to Prosperity said was needed.
The new bill coming forward to recognize aboriginal title and rights will also set the stage for BC First Nations to begin self governance. Self governing First Nations need to out from under Indian Affairs, so far only Sechelt and the Nisga'a have achieved this. The BC Liberals are giving First Nations in BC the path out of the generations of victimhood the Indian Act has impossed on aboriginal people, they are giving them a path to free them from Soviet collectivist model that has failed.
How will the NDP respond? At best they can say they agree with Gordon Campbell, but their track record on aboriginal issues for the last four years has been silence or an embarassing public dispute over the Tsawwassen Treaty. The NDP needs this core consituency to win a number of rural ridings in this province and can only hope that they will vote NDP out of habit and not base their vote on who is best for aboriginal people.
Let us say there is a shift of 1/2 of the aboriginal votes from the NDP to the Liberals. This shift is enough to put both Cariboo ridings, North Island, Skeena and Fraser Nicola into the win column for the Liberals. But it does not end there.
Here is the shocker, if the aboriginal vote splits 50/50 in this election, the NDP will lose North Coast.
If aboriginal people vote for the BC Liberals because of how well the New Relationship has gone so far and new bill on aboriginal title, the BC Liberals will take five to six ridings off of the NDP on May 12th from that vote alone.
Drinking with Terry Glavin
Last night I went out for some drinks with Terry Glavin at Smuggler's Cove in Cadboro Bay.
We had a great time talking politics, well to be more accurate, talking about the how far the debate in politics has strayed from what are the core issues we should be discussing. Much of what we talked about is how the left is disconnected from core values of human rights. The last few years have seen very disturbing trend among the left in Canada and elsewhere, the people on the left are embracing fascists as allies (the enemy of my enemy is my friend). The left support of groups like Hamas or appeasing the Taliban is at best amoral, but at the heart unethical.
We also touched on the lack of any real solidarity in Canada with people in the rest of the world - Canadians are willing to dismiss Afghans as ignorant brown skinned tribal people that really do not have the skills to act in a civilized manner or govern themselves. The people in Afghanistan keeping telling us over and over again that they want a democracy, that they want troops to support the public against the warlords and fascists, and that they want women to be able to take part in society.
We of course talked about environmentalism and the problems within the permanent professional environmental movement that is more interested in selling doom than seeking solutions. Both of us are enviros from way back, but neither one of is an orthodox enviro.
The current global struggle politically is between open democratic societies and closed authoritarian ones. This is either ignored by countries wanting to do business, or there is a strong streak of appeasement of the authoritarians. We are missing a unified and consistent approach from the open societies. It is time for the UN to insist that the UN declaration of human rights is adhered to by all the members.
While it was great to have a few beers with Terry and talk about these things, how do we change the public debate? How do we engage more people in this debate of what is important in society? How do we move the debate towards hope, solutions and consistent moral/ethical actions? Maybe some more people need to drink with us.....
We had a great time talking politics, well to be more accurate, talking about the how far the debate in politics has strayed from what are the core issues we should be discussing. Much of what we talked about is how the left is disconnected from core values of human rights. The last few years have seen very disturbing trend among the left in Canada and elsewhere, the people on the left are embracing fascists as allies (the enemy of my enemy is my friend). The left support of groups like Hamas or appeasing the Taliban is at best amoral, but at the heart unethical.
We also touched on the lack of any real solidarity in Canada with people in the rest of the world - Canadians are willing to dismiss Afghans as ignorant brown skinned tribal people that really do not have the skills to act in a civilized manner or govern themselves. The people in Afghanistan keeping telling us over and over again that they want a democracy, that they want troops to support the public against the warlords and fascists, and that they want women to be able to take part in society.
We of course talked about environmentalism and the problems within the permanent professional environmental movement that is more interested in selling doom than seeking solutions. Both of us are enviros from way back, but neither one of is an orthodox enviro.
The current global struggle politically is between open democratic societies and closed authoritarian ones. This is either ignored by countries wanting to do business, or there is a strong streak of appeasement of the authoritarians. We are missing a unified and consistent approach from the open societies. It is time for the UN to insist that the UN declaration of human rights is adhered to by all the members.
While it was great to have a few beers with Terry and talk about these things, how do we change the public debate? How do we engage more people in this debate of what is important in society? How do we move the debate towards hope, solutions and consistent moral/ethical actions? Maybe some more people need to drink with us.....
First Nations in BC
In the last week or so we have had to very significant government annoucements with respect to First Nations in BC.
First the government has said they will bring forward a law to recognize Aboriginal Title and Rights. This decision by the BC Liberals is stunning and amazing. This really recognizes a New Relationship between the provincial government and BC First Nations. How ever you slice it, BC First Nations will be major players in all natural resource development in BC from now on. I will comment more when I see the actual bill. I very interested to see how the governance structure is going to be set up.
Second, the government announced changes to forestry tenures in BC, the intention to have First Nations have 20% of the annual allowable cut in BC in long term renewable tenures. The Forest and Range Agreements of the last five years have been the biggest transfer of natural resources to First Nations in Canadian history. Now the the government is going deal with the shortcomings of the FRAs (called FROs now) and offer a lot more timber to First Nations.
BC First Nations will control an annual cut of around 10 to 12 million cubic metres of wood per year. This is about 300 000 logging truck loads. The gross revenue of the harvested timber is about $750 000 000 to $1 250 000 000 a year. The finished processed products will have a value to the BC economy of about $2 to $3 billion dollars a year. The full economic value chain of First Nations timber will be about 4% of the BC economy. Outside of the south west economy, the First Nations will control about 15% of the economy through forestry alone.
The actions by the BC Liberals is recreating BC First Nations as major owners of natural resources in this province, a crucial players in the provincial economy. The future of BC is truly going to be a partnership with First Nations.
First the government has said they will bring forward a law to recognize Aboriginal Title and Rights. This decision by the BC Liberals is stunning and amazing. This really recognizes a New Relationship between the provincial government and BC First Nations. How ever you slice it, BC First Nations will be major players in all natural resource development in BC from now on. I will comment more when I see the actual bill. I very interested to see how the governance structure is going to be set up.
Second, the government announced changes to forestry tenures in BC, the intention to have First Nations have 20% of the annual allowable cut in BC in long term renewable tenures. The Forest and Range Agreements of the last five years have been the biggest transfer of natural resources to First Nations in Canadian history. Now the the government is going deal with the shortcomings of the FRAs (called FROs now) and offer a lot more timber to First Nations.
BC First Nations will control an annual cut of around 10 to 12 million cubic metres of wood per year. This is about 300 000 logging truck loads. The gross revenue of the harvested timber is about $750 000 000 to $1 250 000 000 a year. The finished processed products will have a value to the BC economy of about $2 to $3 billion dollars a year. The full economic value chain of First Nations timber will be about 4% of the BC economy. Outside of the south west economy, the First Nations will control about 15% of the economy through forestry alone.
The actions by the BC Liberals is recreating BC First Nations as major owners of natural resources in this province, a crucial players in the provincial economy. The future of BC is truly going to be a partnership with First Nations.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Demanding Democracy - A Rant
When are the democracies of the world going to use their weight to demand that all countries hold free and fair elections? The biggest human rights violation in the world is the lack of free and fair elections - every other human right abuse flows from this.
How can you have a free press or freedom of speech if you are not allowed to elected anyone? How can you have a freedom of conscience or religion if you are in a country ruled by people no one chose?
Without a mandate from the people, there is no functional way to have a government that has a legitimacy to rule. Put simply, the rule of law is almost impossible to have when there is no government with a mandate of the people.
I dream of a Canadian federal parliament that puts democracy as the number one human rights issue globally.
I would like to see Canada demand China, North Korea, Cuba, Gaza, Iran, Algeria, Venezuela,and many others to hold free and fair elections now.
Even if you are not interested in the issue of human rights that much, the simply reality is that no two countries with free and fair elections have ever gone to war with each other. Globally democracy is the fundamental solution to war between nations.
If we are to see real change in Central Asia and the Middle East, we have to have the democratic nations help develop democracies in those locations. If Afghanistan can be made democratic and finally pulled out of the hands of the gang leaders that are robbing and terrorizing the people, this will be a strong signal to a dozen other countries.
Iraq has the potential to be first Arabic country to be a free and democratic nation ever. To date the Arabs in the middle east with the most freedom and the only ones with a long term history of being allowed to vote are the ones that are the citizens of Israel. Think about, the Arabs in the middle east that have it the best are the minority in the Jewish dominated country. They also have one of the highest standards of living of any Arabs even though Israel has no resources and the Arabs feel like second class citizens.
In the 1930s the democracies or Europe failed to support each other and we saw the end result in World War 2. The democracies of the world need to become proactive in the Islamic world especially to support the democracies or those people fighting for human rights. The fascistic elements in the Islamic world are working hard to destroy freedom and human rights anywhere they find it.
How can you have a free press or freedom of speech if you are not allowed to elected anyone? How can you have a freedom of conscience or religion if you are in a country ruled by people no one chose?
Without a mandate from the people, there is no functional way to have a government that has a legitimacy to rule. Put simply, the rule of law is almost impossible to have when there is no government with a mandate of the people.
I dream of a Canadian federal parliament that puts democracy as the number one human rights issue globally.
I would like to see Canada demand China, North Korea, Cuba, Gaza, Iran, Algeria, Venezuela,and many others to hold free and fair elections now.
Even if you are not interested in the issue of human rights that much, the simply reality is that no two countries with free and fair elections have ever gone to war with each other. Globally democracy is the fundamental solution to war between nations.
If we are to see real change in Central Asia and the Middle East, we have to have the democratic nations help develop democracies in those locations. If Afghanistan can be made democratic and finally pulled out of the hands of the gang leaders that are robbing and terrorizing the people, this will be a strong signal to a dozen other countries.
Iraq has the potential to be first Arabic country to be a free and democratic nation ever. To date the Arabs in the middle east with the most freedom and the only ones with a long term history of being allowed to vote are the ones that are the citizens of Israel. Think about, the Arabs in the middle east that have it the best are the minority in the Jewish dominated country. They also have one of the highest standards of living of any Arabs even though Israel has no resources and the Arabs feel like second class citizens.
In the 1930s the democracies or Europe failed to support each other and we saw the end result in World War 2. The democracies of the world need to become proactive in the Islamic world especially to support the democracies or those people fighting for human rights. The fascistic elements in the Islamic world are working hard to destroy freedom and human rights anywhere they find it.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Oops, error earlier today
I made an error post earlier today - I was posting on the fly while cooking dinner. More numbers soon?
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