Signs of the Recession

There is one sure sign the recession is bad in the far east - Ontario licence plates are being seen here on the west coast. This is a picture from yesterday at Harriet and Burnside. From 1992 to 1995 the streets of Vancouver were full of cars of eastern economic migrants, we will be see that again this time around and gain in total percentage of Canadian population.

Website belonging to the leader of BC Reform

Contrary to everything that anyone thought, BC Reform is not dead and Ron Gamble is not the leader but the president. The leader is David Hawkins and he has a personal website called Hawk's Cafe.

Hawk's Cafe is one of these "9/11 is a hoax" type of sites, the 21st century version of holocaust denial. I believe everyone has a right of freedom of speech no matter how stupid their ideas are. David Hawkins has a right to speak about his fantasy world, I also have the right to point out that he is fundamentally wrong and is insulting to rational thinking human beings.

When I find out about holocaust deniers, I will expose them, as I did in the 2005 election with one of the Green Party candidates. I oppose all racists as well and will not appease them. Anti 9/11 people are at heart racists.

I have no interest in debating 9/11, there is no evidence for the delusional ideas of the anti 9/11 people and to debate people incapable of understanding what happened on that day is a waste of my time.

2 CFAX Polls Lately

These are completely unscientific polls but they do tell us a bit about which campaigns are better organized than the others. The results confirm what I seem to be seeing on the ground, the Liberals are better organized than the NDP early in this election.

Thursday's poll
In these early days of the provincial election campaign, which party has impressed you most?
Answer Votes %
Liberals 426 - 47%
NDP 308 - 34%
Greens 118 - 13%
Other 61 - 7%
Total: 913

Wednesday's poll
Now that we've had a few years to digest the pros and cons of the Single Transferable Vote system, will you support it on the provincial election referendum?
Answer Votes %
Yes, let's change to STV. 615 - 52%
No, let's keep our elections the way they are. 446 - 38%
I don't know yet, I may still be swayed over the course of the election. 116 - 10%
Total: 1177

Afganistan

I have been meaning to read Christie Blatchford's book Fifteen Days: Stories of Bravery, Friendship, Life and Death from Inside the New Canadian Army for awhile now. I got a copy for Christmas. I started reading it on Tuesday and it had me close to tears within the first 60 pages - there is a passage on page 52 that moved me in ways I had not expected:

The scene is the return of Ray Arndt's body in August 2006, Darcia Arndt was in tears and shock and told to look out of the car and watch the hearse as it left the base. She did not want to do this

But Darcia did what Johnson asked. She forced herself to look out the window. Outside the fence around the base, along the road were knots of people standing silently, as there would be knots of people on overpasses along the 401 highway to Toronto.

I've been to Trenton for a repatriation ceremony. Those people were there then. They are always there, clutching Canadian flags, weeping, standing straight. They line up outside the fence, they can see and hear almost nothing of the somber service on the tarmac, they wait uncomplainingly for hours in rain and cold. I met a man there who had come to every repatriation ceremony and then one day nearly came for his own son's - his boy, a soldier serving with the 1st Battalion, the Royal Canadian Regiment, had just been injured and was in Germany, soon to come home.

"There were civilians saluting - saluting the police, the military police, saluting us - as we drive by. It was like, wow, what respect," Darcia remembers. "I realize why now, and I'm not mad at him (Johnson) anymore."

Christie Blatchford is one of the great writers of reportage, a format that I really enjoy and the major reason I read Granta for many years. The stories of the soldiers are compelling and brings life to the world of the military.

I remember meeting a soldier from the PPLCI last summer on the Sayward Forest Canoe Route. I had a chance to talk with him and what he said is very similar to what is on Christie Blatchford's book.

I know there are many out there that want the Canadian troops out of Afghanistan. I am a pacificist and my desire is to see an end to all of killing of humans by any other humans, but I can not get behind the anti-war movement. The anti-war movement is not a peace movement. Here is a press release from MAWO about the recent illegal and unprovoked killing of Canadian soldier Karine Blais:

Mobilization Against War & Occupation (MAWO)
Statement on Latest Canadian Soldier Killed in Afghanistan
April 16th 2009

Mobilization Against War & Occupation (MAWO) continues to condemn the illegal and brutal Canada/US/NATO occupation of Afghanistan, which for over 7 years has denied the Afghan people to their basic rights to life, dignity and self-determination. The occupation forces have not only killed over 50,000 Afghan people in this criminal and unjust war, but is also taking the lives of young soldiers who have been convinced to fight in this war.

On Monday April 13th, 21 year old Karine Blais became the 117th Canadian soldier killed in Afghanistan, and the second women of these 117 deaths. Her death was quickly followed by statements made by her godfather, Mario Blais, who told reporters that "I think she did this for absolutely nothing" and said he thinks Prime Minister Steven Harper should "get the troops out of there as fast as possible."

This godfather’s comments reflect the sentiment of the majority of people across Canada, as well as the over 14,000 signatures from the Lower Mainland on the MAWO Canada Out of Afghanistan petition.

Many young men and women like this soldier are convinced by military recruiters that they are going to Afghanistan to help women and children, or to stabilize and reconstruct the country. Reality in Afghanistan is a different story. The best help for women, children and all people of Afghanistan is the end of the occupation of their country.

Women’s rights and health have only gotten worse in the 7 years of occupation. Women now have the second highest rate of maternal mortality in the world, and have a level of domestic violence that has gone up 40% between March or 2007 and 2008. Suicide and self-immolation by women is also on the rise, as reported by the IRIN UN agency. Women’s rights cannot be expected to improve under occupation, as the Canada/US/NATO backed government has proposed new laws further diminishing women’s rights. The new law signed by President Karzai applies to Shia Muslims, and legalizes the rape of women by their husbands, limits women’s movements outside the home as well as other restrictions. This shameful law is put in place by the puppet government that the occupation forces have installed and supported in Afghanistan.

The situation for children in Afghanistan is also deplorable. Due to high levels of unemployment and poverty brought on by the occupation, as well as older family members killed by war, children are forced to work in order to survive. In Kabul alone, there are 50,000 to 60,000 street children as reported by UNICEF.

As for reconstruction, one only has to read the news to see that the occupation forces aren’t constructing clinics or schools, and rather they are bombing villages and homes.

As long as the occupation continues in Afghanistan, the body bags of many young Canadians in combat boots will return to Canada. As we learn from the statements of the godfather of Karine Blais, these young people are doing this for absolutely nothing. In support of both the people of Afghanistan and here at home, MAWO encourages all peace-loving people to get involved in antiwar events and actions, to demand an end to the Canada/US/NATO war drive in Afghanistan.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
MAWO ~ Mobilization Against War & Occupation
http://WWW.MAWOVANCOUVER.ORG
info@mawovancouver.org
P 604.322.1764 || F 604.322.1763

So all the western troops should be pulled out of Afghanistan, then what? Are the people at MAWO convinced that life will be better in Afghanistan if the troops leave? How about the fact that the people in Afghanistan over and over say they want the western troops in the country to protect them?

Life is tough enough in the country, but I can not image what would happen to women if the western troops pull out.

The reality is that the western troops are the first foreign troops in Afghanistan at the request of the government and not an occupying force. The western troops are the first armed force of any kind interested in supporting the development of a functions civil society.

The conflict in Afghanistan comes from the small set of immoral leaders of armed sects in the country. If they would simply stop killing people the war would end. The call from the anti-war movement should be focused on the gang leaders who use guns to gain power and wealth from the hard working people in the villages. The western forces are combating a clearly evil group of people, calling for them to leave is to give in and surrender to a group of people that have evil in their hearts.

As a Quaker I believe there is that of God within everyone. Killing a person is a direct attack on God. The people killing the Canadians in Afghanistan are doing is in direct opposition to all major faiths in the world, not only Quakerism. Specifically what they are doing is against the tenets of Islam and they are not faithful Muslims.

How do we stop them? How do we protect the people they prey on and force to live in misery? How can be abandon them to a hell that is worse than anything ever seen in Canada? Do we not have a responsibility as humans to come to the aid of the oppressed? How many people need to die in Afghanistan before the anti-war movement will support ending the conflict?

As of now 117 Canadians soldiers have died in Afghanistan, not all of them in combat. The soldiers seem to know why they are there and see the benefit on the ground for the people from the Canadian troops. The soldiers see it as a war against evil, a war to protect the men, women and children of Afghanistan for oppression. It seems to be most clear cut mission Canada has sent troops on since World War 2.

Some problems for the NDP

There are a few sectors in society that the BC NDP has been able to count on to vote for them in overwhelming numbers, poverty activists, labour activists, environmentalists, and First Nations. This time around they are losing two of these groups.

There has been a very public condemnation of the BC NDP by some of the most serious environmental groups, this has been covered in the media and the blogosphere well enough. All I can add to this is that I suspect this action will help the Greens finish the election with support levels around where they were in 2001.

The one group no one is talking about that the NDP is losing is the First Nations. They may not be much more than a few percent of the population in BC, but they have a significant impact.

To give you an idea of the demographics involved, there about 65 000 aborginal people living on reserve, 120 000 status Indians in BC and 250 000 First Nations people in BC. These populations are concentrated in a few ridings in rural BC.

In rural BC the NDP has been very dependent on the aboriginal vote to get their MLAs elected. There is many a reserve in BC where the First Nations have voted 90%+ for the NDP. The loss of these voters in the north west ridings, two Cariboo ridings, Vancouver Island North riding and Fraser Nicola riding put the NDP MLAs in those areas in serious danger of losing. The only upside to the NDP is that the BC Liberals have been so friendly to the aboriginal people that they may lose enough votes to allow the NDP to survive.

In 1996 the NDP managed to win three rural ridings because of the aboriginal vote on reserve. That was enough seats to give them a second majority government.

Try out BC STV

I like this site as a way to try out how voting in BC STV might be like.

An Election Prediction Resource for all of you people out there

The UBC ESM may not be happening, but there is place where you can go to get the 2005 results redistributed to the 2009 ridings.

2009 Voter Migration Matrix

If you change nothing, your result is the 2005 results in the 2009 ridings.

One new functionality in the matrix is the addition of non-voters, so when playing around with projections you can also work with the people staying home and those choosing to vote this time.

An quick but to the point blog entry from my friend Paul

Paul Holmes and I are pretty much libertarian type of people, here is his take on the BC election.

I am often as depressed about politics because the vast majority of people are economically illiterate. We really should require economics as a course in high school.

Environmentalists and this election

Normally the professional environmentalists in BC have been solidly pro-NDP, a stance that has driven the Green Party nuts over the years. This time around it is turning out very differently.

We have some of the most respected leaders in the Environmental movement in Canada coming out in support of the actions of the Liberal government and slamming the NDP for their platform.

We have other enviros standing with NDP - why they would do that this time around when the NDP clearly is in the rear guard on environmental issues.

We also have enviros standing with the Greens - people like David Fields of SPEC.

It is interesting to see who in the environmental movement is a pragmatist and supports good government action, who is ideological lead to the point of irrationality and how is standing up for their ideals.

Quickly on the Mustel numbers

Mustel is in with their poll of BC

My overarching comments are:

1) The results are in the realm of possible

2) The results are consistent with past results from Mustel

and that is about it.

So the headline numbers have the Liberals at 52% and the NDP at 35%

They had a sample of 483 with 21% undecided.

Once again I have a problem here, they seem to be saying that 79% of the people answering the poll expressed an opinion as a decided voter. That it much higher than the 62% that are likely to actually vote in this election. This is huge margin of error in the poll because a lot of people are telling the pollsters untruths, this time around about one in six people that answered obliviously lied.

The sample since of 483 gives you a much broader curve. If we pull out the 21% of undecided and accept that the other 79% will be voting, even the liars, that gives us a sample size of 382 to work with and a margin of error that is just about +-5% at the 95% confidence level. The results for the NDP and the Liberals are as likely to be 2-3 points higher or lower than the number reported in the poll.

I tend to believe that the NDP is reasonably correct at 35% to 37% level. Nothing out there is telling me that the NDP support has risen and the nature of the election ahead of us, knowing what we know now, the NDP is not going to gain ground. The NDP's only hope is for something to happen that no one is expecting and changes the politcal landscape - say someone in office fathered a love child with an aide. Actually I do not think that sort of thing would move the polls. It would have to be something criminal related to office to make a difference.

The Mustel Liberal numbers look high to me and I suspect their support is closer to 47%, though that stretches the margin of error curve of the Mustel poll. If any poll has the space for 'flexibility' it is the Mustel one.

The Greens seem to be in the range of 13% in most of the polls. I suspect they will hold more of their vote this time as the NDP has decided to be become the brown party for the election and no one really can bring themselves to believe that Gordon Campbell is the political leader on the environment in North America.

I see there being 3-4% of the vote going to third parties, mostly the Conservatives.

Quick and dirty:

• Liberals - 63
• NDP - 21
• Ind - 1

Greens will still not be realistically close to winning any seats. They will likely have lot more fourth place finishes behind the Conservatives this time around.

The Number 4 Party

For a while it looked like Refederation BC might emerge as the fourth party in the election. It looked like they would have candidates in 35 to 40 ridings. Over the weekend this dropped to 26, most notably the candidates in Capital Region mainly disappeared.

The BC Conservatives meanwhile are at 17 candidates, a number of them people that should be able to get some media coverage and some votes. Chris Delany, former Unity BC leader, is a candidate for the party in Penticton.

Will these parties matter? Unlikely because both Refed and the Conservatives combined do not look like they will be able to run anything close to a full slate. They will remain at best a small piece of trivia for those of us who obsessively look at election results.

The calm before the storm

The election starts tomorrow, yes there has been a lot going on already, but that wild and crazy campaign period starts tomorrow. Today I thought I would put down what the issues are that matter to me:

• Aboriginal Title and Rights - I have worked for First Nations long enough so that this issue is a core of my interests in the election. On this issue alone I would be supporting the BC Liberals, though to be fair there is no way the NDP could have done what the Liberals have done with the aboriginal file and not been slayed in the media.
• Environment - good management of the environment is a core value to myself. I have been on the green side of politics since I was 14 or 15. The issue is a very complex one but is normally debated with shrill voices of doom and gloom for the environment or the economy. I will be writing on this subject in detail later.
• Electoral Reform - I have wanted STV in BC for about 25 years now, ever since I first found out how the Irish elect their Dail. I will post a lot more on this later, but for the moment all I will add is that STV is the electoral system that best reflects public will, provides the best local representation and makes strategic voting impossible.
• Less Redtape - regulation of business is important, but the process of regulation has to be done in such a way as to not get in the way of people running their businesses. All regulations needed to be reviewed on a regular basis to see if their outcomes are meeting the intent when they were created.
• Fiscal Prudence - I really dislike government spending more than it takes in. The impacts of government borrowing on the economy is bad on numerous levels. I am not happy the BC government is saying there is going to be deficit, I believe it will be worse than in the budget. I look at the NDP platform and the fiscal impact scares the bejesus out of me.
• More Accountability of Government - there is good and there is bad in this area. Neither the NDP or BC Liberals are brilliant at this, though in my opinion the edge is with the Liberals, the Liberal MLAs are allowed to publically disagree with government whereas NDP MLAs are not allowed to disagree publically with the party. We do have some very good processes when it comes to lands and the environment, as an example, the BC Environmental Assessment process is model of a strong evidence based evaluation of projects.
  

You may ask where are health and education on the list? For me they are not an issue at this time.

From my interactions with the health system, we seem to have a good quality system that delivers what we need in the public. The big issue that needs to be addressed in health care is how we are looking after ourselves. The time is here for the health focus to be on personal responsibility. I know I need to lose weight and no amount of spending on hospitals is going to make me lose weight.

As to education - I have three kids in the school system and it is generally working well for the three boys that are very different. The results also speak volumes, BC has among the most well educated youth in the world coming out of high school. My biggest complaint about the school system is that there seems to be no system to grade teachers and hold the bad ones accountable.