Thursday, September 3, 2009

BC AFN Vice Chief Election

On October 1st the BC Assembly of First Nations will be choosing a new Vice Chief. Five candidates have been nominated:

  • Shane Gottfriedson (Tke’mlups/Kamloops Indian Band) - in his second term as band chief.
  • Stewart Phillip (Penticton Indian Band) - Current chief of the UBCIC and four terms as Penticton Indian Band chief.
  • Lynda Price (Ulkatcho First Nations) - two term chief of the first nation and one term UBCIC Secretary Treasurer. She was also a School Board Trustee for ten years.
  • Robert Shintah (Ts'kw'aylacw First Nation) - three term UBCIC Vice Chief, former community and political chief of Ts'kw'aylacw.
  • Jody Wilson Raybould (We Wai Kai First Nation) - current commissioner on the BC Treaty Commission.
This is a strong field, there are no clear leaders and no clear weak candidates. Only Robert Shintah has run for the office before. In 2003 he managed a surprisingly strong second place finish on each of the three ballots.

There are just shy of 200 possible electors, though the total number voting will likely be lower than that.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Should a Federal Election Happen this Fall....

here are some interesting pundit resources:

Election Prediction Sites

Election Resources

I will be adding my predictions on what I think the election result could look like. At the moment here is the range I see:

  • Conservatives - 128 (125 - 135) - 33.4%
  • Liberals - 107 (100 - 110) - 31.0%
  • NDP - 27 (25 - 30) - 15.3%
  • Bloc - 45 (43-47) - 8.8%
  • Ind - 1 (1-1)
  • Green - 0 (0-0) - 10.4%
Should we really be headed towards an election, this time around I am going to try and actually give a percentage for each party to win every given riding. I will start with BC and then expand to the west.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The HST - why I support it

There are several different types of sales taxes out there, all of them are taxes on consumption and all of them tend to regressive meaning the poorer you are the more tax you pay as a portion of your income.

Sales taxes work best when they are not too high but this means they need to be widely levied to achieve the revenues desired. A long list of exemptions only cause higher rates on the remaining items.

The existing PST in BC is a cascading vendor tax, this means the tax is levied on the full value of the exchange all along the supply change. It has long been considered unfair and damaging to businesses. An item can have the tax levied on it a number of times as it goes through the chain to the final consumer. The only beneficial thing about the PST is that is not that widely applied.

The GST, and HST once it is in place, is a value added tax, only the difference between what the vendor paid for the inputs and received for the product is taxed. Value Added Taxes are the direction that almost every jurisdiction has gone worldwide. It is ultimately fairer and reduces the government bite on the economy.

A VAT like the GST encourages more business to be on the books and registered. There is a benefit to being able to claim the GST paid for a service or good. The PST by nature encourages transactions off of the books to avoid the tax to try and avoid paying it.

Will the HST save businesses in BC money? Certainly all the ones currently paying PST will save money in no longer having to submit PST returns, the GST return process is much easier in my opinion. People that had to charge PST will also save money with the HST by being able to claim back more of the taxes they paid. This will be a huge benefit for the retail sector and any one in manufacturing.

Those of us who are self employed and operate businesses that have almost all the value added in one transaction will be paying lot more in taxes. I suspect I will be paying about three times as much HST as I pay GST now. Though I will simply be adding that cost to my bills to clients.

I like the suggestion by the Green Party to make the HST 10%, though I do not know if BC had a choice in the number involved. The Greens have been the lead on this issue and saying BC should have an HST for about five years now. Clearly they have some rational economists suggesting ideas that are worth considering.

I personally would have preferred that BC scrap the PST completely but this tax collects roughly five billion dollars a year in BC for the government, this is too big a hit from a $40 billion dollar budget to lose it.

What I have not seen in any of the information is an estimate of how much the HST will raise in BC. Now with the budget being released today, we have something to go on. The province expects to collect $5.9 billion dollars of HST in 2011/12, the first full fiscal year with no PST. In 2009/10 BC expect to collect $4.9 billion in PST in the final full fiscal year of the PST. This seems to say that an extra 20% of money will be raised by the HST than the PST. Though in 2008/09 the province had expected to collect $5.3 billion in PST but only managed $5 billion.

I also look at the HST amounts for 2011/12 and use it as an estimate of the GDP of BC and get a provincial GDP that is about $220 billion whereas within the budget documents I get to about $205 billion. This is a gap of about 7% and might mean the HST numbers in 2011/12 might be a bit high.

Taking this into mind, HST many only collect about $5.5 billion in 2011/12, roughly what the PST would have collected if it has continued.

Federal Election Coming?

I am less than thrilled at the idea of another federal election, but it sounds like the Liberals are pushing for one.

I am not sure what Ignatieff thinks will happen with a federal election. Is there something the Liberal polling is telling them that indicates they have a chance to win?

All I can see at this time is another minority government. I suspect that it will be a weaker Conservative minority than there is now. I suspect a federal election now would lead to a loss of seats in BC for the Conservatives and few other changes. It is hard to say because we do not know how the election would play out. The campaign matters, polling in the summer is meaningless, and no one can predict what will be the defining issues in an election.

What are the chance of a majority? Very slim because of the Bloc. They are likely to continue to hold about 45 to 50 seats. This means either the Liberals or the Conservatives have to win about 60% of the seats in the rest of the country to get a majority.

The Conservatives need to hold everything they have and pick up a dozen more. The problem is that they accomplished this in an election when the Liberals cratered to historic lows. The Liberals are polling four to six points ahead of where they were in the last election. The Conservatives are running about three to four points down. Unless something happens in the election, I can not see how the Conservatives can maintain their 143 seats. I see them losing seats to the Liberals.

The odds of a Liberal majority are even longer. There are 65 western seats that no matter what the Conservatives will win. There are about 30 seats in Ontario that will remain Conservative no matter what. Add to that ten more east of there as a worst case scenario for the CPC and the 45-50 Bloc seats means 150 to 155 seats are gone.

For the Liberals to have any chance of winning a majority they need to destroy the NDP. They need to drive the NDP to less than 10 seats.

So what will be the impact of the election? A smaller Conservative minority government. We will be back to where we are at the moment, nothing of substance will have changed.

Maybe this is all a ploy by the Liberals to force the government to cozy up to the Bloc and then condemn them for that? After what happened with the coalition idea last fall and the railing against the tacit involvement of the Bloc, it would be good politics for the Liberals to turn the tables on the Conservatives and force them to work closely with the Bloc.