Friday, April 30, 2010

More UK seat predictions

Here is the list of what I see as the tightest three way races in the election



  1. Barrow and Furness – Likely Conservative
  2. Batley and Spen - Likely Labour
  3. Bedford – Likely Conservative
  4. Birimingham Northfield 
  5. Blackpool South 
  6. Bolton West - Likely Conservative
  7. Carlisle – Likely Labour
  8. Chatham and Aylesford – Likely Labour
  9. Crewe and Nantwich – Likely Conservative
  10. Ealing North – Likely Conservative
  11. Erewash
  12. Halifax
  13. Hammersmith 
  14. Harrow West
  15. Hyndburn 
  16. Kingswood
  17. Leeds North East
  18. Lincoln 
  19. Luton North
  20. Norwich North
  21. Weaver Vale
  22. Wirral South
For these 22 seats I predict 10 Conservative, 7 Labour and 5 Liberal Democrat

Liberal Conservative Races in Labour held Seats:

  1. Brentford and Isleworth
  2. City of Chester 
  3. Cleethorpes 
  4. Coventry South
  5. Dewsbury 
  6. Ealing Central and Action
  7. Eltham 
  8. High Peak
  9. Milton Keynes North 
  10. Pendle 
  11. Tooting
I am going with 7 Conservative and 4 Liberal


Liberal - Labour Close Races

  1. Garston and Halewood 
  2. Greenwish and Woolwich 
  3. Heywood and Middleton
  4. Leicester West 
  5. Lewisham East
  6. Manchester Central
  7. Newcastle-under-Lyme 


I am assigning them 4 Liberal Democrat and 3 Labour

Longshot Wins for Liberal Democrats

  1. Barking 
  2. Barnsley Central 
  3. Birmingham Erdington 
  4. Birmingham Selly Oak
  5. Blackley and Brougton 
  6. Brent North
  7. Brighton Pavilion 
  8. Bury South 
  9. Cannock Chase 
  10. Darlington
  11. Don Valley 
  12. Dorset South 
  13. Ealing Southall 
  14. Hackney South and Shoreditch
  15. Hull East 
  16. Leeds Central 
  17. Oldham West Royton
  18. Penistone and Stocksbridge 
  19. Redcar 
  20. Salford and Eccles 
  21. Sheffield Heeley 
  22. Slough
  23. Stockport
  24. Stoke-on-Trent Central 
  25. Stole on Trent South 
  26. Sunderland Central 
  27. Tottenham
  28. Tyneside North
  29. Warrington South 
  30. Wythenshawe and Sale East 
Baring new information, I would expect 1/4 of these seats to fall to the Liberal Democrats - so 8 Liberal Democrat and 22 Labour.

I have not reached 153 seats for the Liberal Democrats without any gains in Scotland or Wales.   I am at Labour losing 160 to 170 seats in England
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