Monday, November 5, 2012

The day before Obama's Re-election

I can not find a single prognosticator on the US election that sees any chance for Mitt Romney winning but the media keeps talking about a close race.   On the media websites their predictions of the electoral college are at dramatically lower than what is bring predicted by those that use serious statistics to come up with predictions.

Here are the current predictions out there from the serious prognosticators - remember, 270 electoral college votes are needed to win:

Obama Romney ties
Nate Silver 307.2 230.8 294 220 24 332 206
Princeton Election Consortium 303 235
Intrade 303 235

All of them have Obama significantly above the 271 mark.   Several states that have been polling consistently for Obama would have to change to Romney for him to win.   Realistically both Ohio and Virginia would have suddenly vote Romney contrary to what all the polling is saying.

It is now more likely that Obama will retain all the states he won in 2008 than lose either of Obio of Virginia.

Meanwhile in the House of Representatives it looks like the Democrats will take a number of Republican seats, anywhere from 6 to 20 seats when compared with the 2010 results.   The best estimates I can find have the results as 208 to 227.

In the Senate it looks like the Democrats will win 52 or 53 seats to the Republicans 47 or 48.


Anonymous said...

for the # junkies:

Inside The NYT's Visual Election Outcome Explorer

brian said...

So, a Democratic President, and slim Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate.

Maybe now Obama will be able to get something done, over the clamouring of the Mitch Mcconnell gang?

Bernard said...

The house seems like to remain in Republican hands so no fundamental change from the status quo