Sunday, July 25, 2010

Will there be a federal election anytime soon?

There are people out there that suggest is is realistic to expect an election sometime this fall, I am completely convinced there is no danger of this for the following reasons

  • The Liberals and NDP are broke - you need money to run an election, not debts.   Pundits guide has some good data on party and the money they have.    The Conservatives have a lot of money, the Bloc does not fundraise because that would take money away from the Parti Quebecois, and no one cares if the Greens have money or not.   
  • The polling numbers for the Liberals are low enough that they have no interest in going into an election
  • The polling numbers for the Conservatives are not good enough to win a a majority

The only way we could have an election is if the opposition did something stunningly stupid and lost the confidence of the public, or accidentally the votes go wrong and the government falls.

Beyond either one of those situations, I do not see an election coming.

At this point I expect a 2011 'Election' budget and the government to go to the polls in late June or October of 2011.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Would bill C-12 (the bill which revises the formula for the number of representative constituencies in each province) be based on the upcoming census, or would it be based on the previous census? If based on the previous census, then the Liberals and Conservatives might want to wait until late 2011 or 2012, as Alberta, BC, and Ontario will gain representation relative to Quebec.