Thursday, February 17, 2011

and then there were four

With the annoucement just now that Ed Mayne is dropping out and backing George Abbott there are only the four major candidates left. The Stilwell and Mayne annoucements have made for a very good media week for Abbott.

Stilwell and Mayne realistically had very few supporters and bring very little in member numbers to Abbott. What happens with both of them leaving the race that really is a benefit to Abbott is the loss of the sympathy votes both them would have attracted.

I know of moderate number of people that were going to vite Mayne or Stilwell first out of sympathy for their longshot campaigns. They could use their fitst preference as a bit of protest secure in knowing their vote will go forward. With both Stilwell and Mayne backing out of the race this no longer an option.

My estimate is that about 3% of Liberals would have dine this though disproprtionalty in the less well organized areas of the province. Many more of these people will be swayed now towards Abbott.

My estimate is that Abbott will gain about 250 points through getting Mayne and Stilwell on board.
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