Thursday, February 17, 2011

How much my vote counts in the Liberal race

I live in Victoria Swan Lake, represented by Rob Fleming of the NDP and unlikely to ever be defeated. Our local BC Liberal riding association was/is moribund. I could not even find out who was the riding president back in the fall.

We started the race 65 members, of which I was not one.  My membership was lapsed.

Based on what I have been able to glean, there are between 150 and 200 members now in the riding.  

If we assume that 70% of existing members vote and 95% of new members vote, the voter turn out will be between 120 and 165 people will vote in the Liberal leadership race in this riding.  

This means my vote is worth between 0.61 and 0.83 points out of 8500 total in the leadership race.   The average member of the BC Liberals has a vote worth about 0.1 points - my vote worth about seven times as much.   In the large ridings, those with 5000 members, each vote is worth 0.02 points, my vote is worth about 35 times as much.  

My oldest son and wife are members as well.   As a household we effectively control 2 to 2.5 points in the race.
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