Thursday, February 24, 2011

The fun of making a prediction

I have now had input from a number of members of three of the Liberal leadership campaigns explaining to me how my analysis of the race and my prediction is wrong.   The only campaign I have no heard from is Kevin Falcon's, maybe they like what I said?

Taking together the information I got from the three campaigns means there is a lot of bullshit out there.   The three spins I have been given are more or less mutually exclusive.    I did not get a lot of data from the people, though enough to confirm my assumptions of the probable results in eight more ridings - I am fairly confident in being very close in 23 ridings now out of 85.

I do not have any data yet that leads me to contradict the prediction I made earlier, but that prediction is based on the data I have access to now and not on detailed internal campaign information.

I will do another prediction tomorrow morning if I get more data.
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