Monday, March 28, 2011

Prediction of the Election

I am going to give it a few more days before I make an updated prediction - if I have my act together I will post the full list of the ridings in the same form that I have done for the BC ridings.

What I will be paying attention to is the following:

  • Media reaction to the leaders and the campaign
  • Polls after the first four or five days of the election
  • The main messages of the campaigns

On Thursday or Friday I will update.

My first impressions of the campaign are the following

  • Very few people are interested or excited in the campaign
  • The Conservative talk of a coalition of the Liberals/NDP/Bloc does not seem to be hitting home
  • Ignatieff has been both weaker and stronger than I have expected - the Liberals feel like they are slow to start, but Ignatieff has made some decent comments
  • The ballot box question - I am not sure what will be biggest enduring ballot box question, though I think it may be "do you want a Conservative majority or not?"   I do not see the this question shifting a large population, but it may crater the NDP vote in many ridings of the country to the benefit for the Liberals, ditto for the Greens.
First signs I saw were for Conservative Troy Desouza in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - this was within a short time of the call.   I saw signs for Conservative Patrick Hunt in Victoria and Liberal Lillian Szpak in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca on Sunday.   Curious is the absence of NDP signs in Victoria and Esquimalt Juan de Fuca.

1 comment:

Ian said...

I look forward to your prediction. This poll shows some stark shifts in Quebec which may or may not spill over its border. Of course one poll is not definitive, but it is nonetheless curious. I haven't looked enough to see if a halving of Grit support and near doubling of NDP would throw a whole bunch of ridings into play, but it's worth a look.

As for signs, I saw some big Ujjal ones already in his riding and 1 little Con one there, as well as some re-elect Con ones in North Van with a few small NDP signs.