Friday, April 29, 2011

2 Polls in Saskatchewan

Project Democracy has done nine riding level polls, all with 400 respondents and a statistical margin of +-4.85 95% of the time.   Both show the Conservatives are safe

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

  • Rob Clarke - Conservative 56.7%
  • Lawrence Joseph - NDP 35.0%
  • Gabe Lafond - Liberal 6.7%
  • George Morin - Green 1.7%

The polling numbers show the Conservatives at where they were in the last election.  Without David Orchard as their candidate, the Liberals have fallen into a very distant third.   The NDP support is doubel what it was in 2008.

  • Brad Trost - Conservative 50.0%
  • Denise Kouri - NDP 30.6%
  • Darren Hill - Liberal 12.9%
  • Sandra Findley - Green 6.5%

The poll broadly finds the support the same as the 2008 election expect for one odd thing, the independent candidate Jim Pankiw does not seem to have been part of the poll.

Since 1988 this riding has been a close race in four of seven elections.   The NDP won 1988, the Liberals in 1993 and since then by the right.  Brad Trost won it in 2004 in a close four way race, his 26.7% of the vote might be the lowest in Canadian history.   The sitting MP, Jim Pankiw, ran as an independent 2004 coming in fourth and taking 20% of the vote.

Jim Pankiw is running again, but there is no mention of him on the poll.  In 2006 he ran as an independent in Battleford Lloydminster and took 14.4% of the vote.   He will take some amount of the vote and why he was not in the poll I have no idea.
The polling was done by a small company out of Subury that is connected with the Green Party - OraclePoll.

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