Saturday, April 30, 2011

Green Party Vote

In the whole NDP surge thing, there seems to be one more source of support for the party, the Greens.

The last couple of days have had seven polls, four have had the Greens at 4%, one at 6.9% and one at 3.1%.   The Greens have often done well in the polls because the pollsters prompt with party names, but even the pollsters that prompt for party name, like the latest Leger poll, have the Greens at a low percentage.   I think we can fairly safely say the Green vote has fallen to something in the range of 4% nationally, down a significant amount from 2008 and lower than 2004 and 2006.

The latest Ekos poll has 25.6% of 2008 Green voters voting NDP this time and only 37.6% for the Greens.  Ekos also shows us that Green voters in 2011 are the voters most likely to change their mind and the least likely to vote.   40% of Greens are open to voting NDP according to the poll.

The drop in votes for the Greens will mean a loss of a significant amount of their federal subsidy.   They are also unlikely to have many candidates qualify for election rebates this time around, a major source of why established party candidates can do so well from one election to the next.

If Elizabeth May does not get elected, the Green party may fall apart federally.   If she does manage to win, the Greens will be moderately safe, but if the offer came to join another party as MP, a couple years of being an MP with no impact at all might push her to change parties and declare the idea of a Green Party great in theory but untenable in reality.
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