Friday, April 22, 2011

Angus Reid Poll for BC

Angus Reid released an 802 person sample poll yesterday for BC in the federal election.

  • Party  Poll  2008 election 
  • Cons    42    44.4
  • NDP     32    25.0
  • Libs    18    19.3
  • Greens   6     9.4

The first thing that jumps out at from this poll for me is the rise in the NDP.   With the NDP over 30%, there are a host of ridings that come into play for them in BC:

  • Newton-North Delta -  I am now convinced the NDP is the most likely winner here
  • Vancouver Centre - Very tight race
  • Kamloops-North Thompson-Highlands
  • Vancouver Island North - more and more I think they will take this one
  • Surrey North - I now think the NDP will win here
  • Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - Longshot
  • Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - this one could surprise on election day
  • Nanaimo-Alberni - longshot
  • Kootenay Columbia - longshot

If the NDP is over 30% in BC on election day, they will gain at least two and as many as seven seats.   It is almost impossible for their vote to rise over 30% and not tip a number of seats their way.

The next thing I see is the fall in the Green vote.   Based on the history of Green polling in the 2006 and 2008 elections and given some polling data that has come up in this election (Greens are least likely to vote in the election and most likely to change their vote), I think it is reasonably safe to assume that the Greens will not achieve 6% on May 2nd.  I am estimating that outside of Saanich-Gulf Islands and Vancouver Centre the Greens will poll less than 2000 votes per riding, down from almost 4500 in 2008. The party could end up with their lowest result in the province since they started running full slates in 2004.

On first glance I had thought that the numbers were worse for the Liberals, but when one factors out Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Saanich-Gulf Island results from last time, the Liberals are close to where they were in 2008 in the rest of the province.   I really see no chance of the Liberals gaining North Vancouver.

Liberal Seats in BC

  • Vancouver Centre - tight three way race, odds still in favour of Liberals, for now
  • Vancouver Quadra - probably the only safe seat in BC for the Liberals
  • Vancouver South - if there is any tide against the Liberals in the lower mainland, this is gone.   
  • Newton North Delta - With the rise of the NDP in Metro Vancouver, this should fall to them
  • Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - Liberals are not a factor in the race in this riding

Liberals are looking at 2-3 seats on election day in BC if there is further fall for them or rise for the NDP.  At this point I sense there is a tide to the NDP in much of Canada and I think it is manifesting itself in BC as well.   The NDP vote will start to drain off more Liberal support in the province with the impact that I think on election day the Liberals will be left with one seat in BC.
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