Monday, April 18, 2011

Pollpalloza - six new federal polls out today

So let us see what the big numbers say from all the latest polls released by the companies:

Pollster  Cons Libs NDP Bloc Green Margin
Leger      38   26   22   9   5    +-1.7
Angus Reid 36   25   25   9   5    +-2.2
Ekos       37.4 24.9 20   7.8 8.4  +-2.2
Harris Dec.36   28   19   8   7    +-3.1
Nanos      39.8 29.8 17.4 8.6 3.4  +-3.1
Abacus     39   29   20   8   5    +-3.2
2008       37.6 26.2 18.2 10  6.8

I do not add polls together and average them as this is not statistically valid.  It gives you a false sense of certainty.  Looking at polls from each company compared to their past polls is a more valid to see some certainty of what is happening.

Support for the Bloc is down in all these polls.   In the latest polls, the NDP are the biggest winners, though earlier in the campaign they were behind their 2008 result.

The Conservatives seem to be roughly where they were in 2008 but with less support in Quebec.  Only one poll shows the Greens up from 2008, while the Liberals have one even with 2008, two down and three up from that result.

There seems to be a significant shift in Quebec from the Bloc to the NDP.   I am trying to collate good regional results, but I do not have access to the Leger numbers, which interest me the most.  The shift in Quebec also seems to have the Liberals and Conservatives down.

The shift in numbers for the big three parties in Quebec means that in the rest of Canada the NDP may be down while the Liberals and Conservatives could be up.  What I am seeing in the regional results in Ontario is a trend showing the combined Liberal and Conservative vote is up.

So how does this impact the election?   I am not sure yet.  I need to crunch the numbers, look at the ridings and see what impact it may have.   In Quebec I think there could be the gain of a number of seats for the NDP if their vote is concentrated, which some sources have told me is happening.
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