Friday, April 15, 2011

Quebec in this election

The overall nationally polling by all the companies has shown the Bloc is down from 2008, not a single poll has them up.   At the same time, the regional breakouts that are large enough to consider show a mixed story with the Bloc but almost all indicate the NDP is up and lately could be the number 2 party in Quebec.

So I have been running the numbers based on a significant drop in the Bloc vote and a rise in the NDP and level for the others.   The end result is actually very little change, based on the following percentages:

  • Bloc 36%
  • NDP 21%
  • Liberal 20%
  • Cons 19%
  • Greens 3%

And this translates to roughly the following result:

  • Bloc 47
  • Liberals 14
  • Conservatives 10
  • NDP 3 - and would be only two if I did not think they will win the north
  • Andre Arthur 1
With a three way split in 'federalist' vote, the Bloc can basically hold their own in seats and achieve their lowest vote in any election.

The last two elections the Liberals and Conservatives combined have taken 45.4% and 45.3% of the vote respectively.   

What I have no idea is if the rise in the NDP in Quebec is real?   Is their vote concentrated or spread out?   We have little to go on from the past because the party has really no long term track record.

With the Conservatives we can see they are tapping in the old Bleu heartlands, the places the Creditistes did well in the 1960s and 70s.    The Liberals retain their strength among the anglophones and allophone communities.    Where is the NDP support concentrated?

I am trying to read more of the sites in French, mais je parle francais tres mal, il est my troisieme langue.

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Addendum at 11:30 am

Ekos has released their latest poll numbers.   For Quebec they have the Bloc at less than 30% - this is with a +-4.8% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.  

Is there really a chance the Bloc is collapsing and the NDP rising?
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