Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Who else could break 2% and get federal funding?

I think there are several parties out there that could break the 2% mark in votes and qualify for federal funding.

2% will be between 275,000 and 290,000 votes in this election, this is worth $550,000 to $580,000 a year in funding.  It takes $308,000 to put up the money for the deposits for candidates in all of the ridings in the country.   Investing $300k with a reasonable expectation of getting almost double that amount each year seems to be me to be a good investment.  

Christian Heritage Party - If they were to run close to a full slate, it is realistic for them to get between 3-5% of the vote nationally.   In 1988, their first election, they managed to get 3.56% of the vote in the ridings where they had candidates.

Canadian Action Party - There is a large enough body of people out there that support their 'unique' policies.   A nationwide slate would bring them the notoriety needed to get past 2% of the vote.  

In 1993 the Mel Hurtig National Party of Canada ran 171 candidates and managed 2.34% of the vote in those ridings.   Many National Party supporters moved over to the Canadian Action Party.

Rhino Party - If they were an option, a lot more people would vote for them.   In 1979, 1980, and 1984 their candidates managed more than 2% in the ridings they ran in.   I would love to see a full slate of Rhino candidates so that they could get funding, it would create a crisis in Ottawa with respect to the funding model.   The $1000 deposit was primarily created to get rid of the Rhino Party.

Regional parties could break the 2% barrier in parts of the country, here is what percentage of the vote it would take in each possible region:

  • BC - 15-17% - 36 seats
  • Alberta - 22-25% - 28 seats
  • BC + Alberta - 9-10% - 64 seats
  • The West - 7.0-7.5% - 92 seats
  • Ontario - 5.5-6.0% - 106 seats
  • Quebec - 7.5 - 8.0% - 75 seats
  • Atlantic Canada - 25-28% - 32 seats

As you can see, in would only be realistic in certain regions, it strike me that a minimum would be all of the West, Ontario or Quebec.  If you were to run only in the West and Ontario, 198 out of 308 seats, you would only need 3% of the vote in those seats.

If some of these smaller parties figure out there is good money available to them and they can get their act together, it is reasonable that we could see three to five more political parties achieve the 2% mark and therefore funding.
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