- Site Cons Libs BQ NDP Oth
- Canadian Election Watch 150 78 48 32
- Riding by Riding 146 85 46 30 1**
- Too Close To Call 146 78 47 37
- Lispop 149 76 48 35
- Election Almanac 144 87 45 32
- threehundredeight 152 73 50 33
- Democratic Space* 152 78 43 34 1**
- median 149 78 47 33
- average 148.4 79.3 46.7 33.3
* Greg at Democratic Space has a range of probable results, the numbers are the mid range on his page
** Andre Arthur in Quebec
I am going to come out with some new number myself later today or early tomorrow, I see enough evidence to warrant some changes to my prediction.
Observations:
Majority is not yet in the hands of Harper, but everyone has him getting closer to the needed 155 number. A gain of six seats gets him more than half way there.
The Liberals and Bloc seem to on average holding their own with some predicting up and some down. The projections have the Liberals up one or two and the Bloc down one or two.
Only one person is predicting Andre Arthur will be re-elected. I think it is not realistic to predict he will lose given he is the incumbent and he is an independent. He falls outside of the data from polling.
What I find interesting in the seven seat projections listed above is that not a single one is giving Elizabeth May any chance of winning. I assume this has more to do with large nation and region wide polling numbers than local knowledge. I am not convinced she will win, but I think her odds are improving.
No one is predicting the NDP will gain seats, not a good spot for Jack Layton to be in. The projections seem to indicate the loss of four seats.
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