Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Election Prediction Roundup

Here is the list of seat predictions I know of:

  • Site                      Cons  Libs  BQ  NDP  Oth
  • Canadian Election Watch    150   78   48   32
  • Riding by Riding           146   85   46   30   1**
  • Too Close To Call          146   78   47   37
  • Lispop                     149   76   48   35
  • Election Almanac           144   87   45   32
  • threehundredeight          152   73   50   33
  • Democratic Space*          152   78   43   34   1**
  • median                     149   78   47   33
  • average                    148.4 79.3 46.7 33.3

* Greg at Democratic Space has a range of probable results, the numbers are the mid range on his page
** Andre Arthur in Quebec

I am going to come out with some new number myself later today or early tomorrow, I see enough evidence to warrant some changes to my prediction.

Observations:
Majority is not yet in the hands of Harper, but everyone has him getting closer to the needed 155 number.   A gain of six seats gets him more than half way there.

The Liberals and Bloc seem to on average holding their own with some predicting up and some down.   The projections have the Liberals up one or two and the Bloc down one or two.

Only one person is predicting Andre Arthur will be re-elected.  I think it is not realistic to predict he will lose given he is the incumbent and he is an independent.   He falls outside of the data from polling.

What I find interesting in the seven seat projections listed above is that not a single one is giving Elizabeth May any chance of winning.   I assume this has more to do with large nation and region wide polling numbers than local knowledge.   I am not convinced she will win, but I think her odds are improving.

No one is predicting the NDP will gain seats, not a good spot for Jack Layton to be in.  The projections seem to indicate the loss of four seats.
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