Friday, July 29, 2011

The Liberal Party in Canada

With the huge defeat of the Liberals in the Federal election the party is in serious trouble.   Provincially things do not look much better.

  • BC - the party if the government, but unless something dramatic happens, I can not see the Liberals remaining government after the next election, though they should be able to remain the official opposition
  • Alberta - the latest polls for the Liberals are not good and it is possible that in the next election they will be shut out.
  • Saskatchewan - The Liberals have been shut out since 2003 with no danger of that changing any time soon
  • Manitoba - They won two seats in 2007 and might be able to hold onto one, maybe
  • Ontario - The Liberals are government and look like they will be defeated in the election, there is a possibility that the NDP will finish ahead of them and be the official oppoistion - one poll in June had the two parties close to each other in support
  • Quebec - I have no idea what is going on in Quebec.   For a long time it looked like a PQ win, now the PQ is doing some imploding.   Who knows and with the latest polls it would seem that they are headed for a minority
  • New Brunswick - The Liberals are the official opposition and I have no idea if they are doing well or not.
  • Nova Scotia - at the moment the NDP looks to be popular enough to win the next election, the issue will be if the Liberals can win more seats than the PCs.   
  • PEI - The Liberals are government here and seem to actually be on target to win again.
  • Newfoundland - The PCs are likely to lose some seats in the province, but I expect them to lose them to the NDP.   I think there is a decent chance the NDP will form the official opposition.
  • Yukon - no idea where things will go in their next election.

Other than a few possible bright spots in Atlantic Canada, the majority of Canada does not look like a good place for the Liberals.
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