Friday, July 29, 2011

Interesting Poll out of Alberta

For some time it looked like the public mood in Alberta was changing and the Wildrose Party could seriously challenge the PCs for government in the province.   There is a new Environics poll out and it shows a shift back to the dominance of the province by the PCs.

I had thought there could be a major realignment in Alberta with the rise of the Wildrose party, but it seems that the resignation of Ed Stelmach has turned things around for the PCs.   That said, Wildrose is still far ahead of where they were in the 2008 election.    Can they win many seats?   With numbers like this, no.  In fact, unless their vote concentrates, they could easily end up with almost no seats at all.

The news is not good for the Liberals, they are way down from where they have been for the last 25 years. They are at half of their support from the 2008 election.   Their generally strong position in Calgary looks very weak now, the poll has them 10.6%, down from 33.9% in 2008.  Edmonton is almost as bad for them.   To put it lightly, there is a strong chance they could be shut out with numbers like this.   If that were to happen, it is possible that on the prairies there may not be a single elected Liberal in a provincial legislature and only two MPs.  

What is shocking in the poll to me is that the NDP is doing well in many parts of Alberta where the party has had no presence in recent years.   Could the party make some gains?   Maybe, but at least they should hold what they have at the moment.   If the Liberal Party and Alberta Party both fall to pieces, there is a chance the NDP could benefit enough to become the official opposition.
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