Tuesday, August 30, 2011

New CROP on federal voting intentions in Quebec

This is new poll by CROP for La Presse.   It covers provincial and federal voting intentions.   I am ignoring the provincial ones because everything in Quebec is in political turmoil and poll now is meaningless.

The federal results are interesting though

  • NDP 40%  (-2.9)
  • Conservatives 22% (+5.5)
  • Bloc 20% (-3.4)
  • Liberals 12% (-2.2)
  • Greens 5% (+2.9)

Most interesting is that the Conservatives have improved their standing in Quebec, not drastically but enough to gain 3-5 seats.   They are now polling the same as their support was in the 2008 election though not quite as good as 2006.  

The fall in the Bloc and the Liberals is enough to propel the NDP to winning more seats.    All in all, even thought it is only one poll, the chance that the Liberals and Bloc could be shut out of Quebec in 2015 is not unrealistic.

Possible Seat Totals - projecting results more than three years in advance is really nothing more than fortune telling, but here is my stab on what this poll could mean.

  • NDP  62 (58-63)
  • Conservatives 11 (6-13)
  • Liberals 1 (0-3)
  • Bloc 1 (0-3)
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