Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Paul Forseth to run as a BC Conservative in New Westminster

The BC Conservatives are solidifying their position as the #3 party in BC over and over again.   The latest is the decision by former MP Paul Forseth to seek the BC Conservative nomination in the riding of New Westminster.  Certainly it is good news for John Cummings to get one of his former MP colleagues to join him but the riding Paul Forseth chose is not a good one for the Conservatives.

His decision to run in New Westminster is good news for the Liberal as this is really a NDP stronghold.   The NDP held the riding from 1952 to 2001 and then since 2005.  That is 16 of the last 17 elections.   The one loss was in 2001 when current federal Liberal MP Joyce Murray won it for the BC Liberals.

Paul Forseth was elected as a Reform MP in 1993, re-elected in 1997, elected as a Canadian Alliance MP in 2000 and finally as a Conservative MP in 2004.  He lost in 2006 to Dawn Black of the NDP.  He tried running again in 2011 but came second behind Peter Julian of the NDP.

Realistically the NDP should be comfortably expect 55% of the vote.   The question then becomes if the Liberals will remain in second place or not.   I have trouble seeing Paul Forseth taking more than 20% of the vote, that could be high.   Running knowing he will not win is hardly going to bring in the money and volunteers needed to win.

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