Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Newfoundland Election

There was a poll last week in Newfoundland from MarketQuest Omnifacts Research.   The headline results are:

  • PCs 53
  • NDP 29
  • Liberals 18

The results for the PCs is roughly the same as they have been getting under Kathy Dunderdale.   It is the results for the Liberals and NDP that are interesting.

Of the three seats won by the Liberals, all of them are a toss up on which party will be able to win them.

Because the NDP is up more than 20 percentage points from their 2007 results, it is hard to predict the 2011 election from the 2007 results.

Roughly, if the polling numbers are the base, what realistic results in the province could look like:

  • PCs 41 (38-43)
  • NDP 6 (3-8)
  • Liberal 1 (0-3)  

Though this has to be taken with a grain of salt as there are very few polls in Newfoundland and Labrador and the 2007 election result was rather unprecedented.
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