Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Ontario Election

Last week there were two new polls out in Ontario - Leger and Angus Reid.   The two polls are roughly the same in their results.  

  • Party       Leger  Angus Reid
  • Liberals  33          32
  • PCs        36          36
  • NDP       26          26
  • Green       6            5

The polls further seem to confirm each other in the regional results.

So what does mean on the ground in Ontario?   I think it means a Conservative government but not likely a majority.

When there is a three way race like this, the second and third place parties are likely to under preform in their seat count compared to their popular vote.   For the Liberals the rise of the NDP has placed a whole slate of seats into play and suddenly makes seats potentially in the PC column where they only had 1/3 of the vote last time.

I suspect that the majority of seats in this election will be won by less than a 10 percentage point margin over the second place finisher.  In 2007 only about 1/4 were won with less than a 10 percentage point margin.

So my current Ontario projection:

  • Conservatives  53 (45 - 63)
  • Liberals 33 (20 - 40)
  • NDP 21 (18 - 24)

I can not see a scenario from the polls of last of week that allows me to model a result in which the Liberals win the most seats.   For that to happen they would have to every seat in play.

There is a chance that NDP could finish the election with more seats than the Liberals.


Ian said...

Have you been following threehundredeight's projections? They argue that the strength of the Liberals in the GTA and the inefficiency of the Tory vote (much like the federal NDP pre-2011) will give a Liberal minority - basically your numbers with the Red and Blue teams swapped. Either way Ms. Horwath will have quite a bit of influence.

Bernard said...

I have seen Eric's work and I do not think he is accurate if the Leger and Angus Reid regional numbers are to be believed - the regional numbers for both polls are very small samples

The NDP is high enough that they shift their impact on the election and quickly become a serious drain on the Liberals.

My assumptions have a slightly higher NDP vote and a slightly lower Liberal vote. I am also assuming a fairly strong Liberal to NDP shift to account for the NDP rise. It is this assumption of mine that really has a big impact on seat totals.

The election results will end up having a lot more close results and could end with results no one was expecting. With more half the seats realistically in play, predicting the election on a seat by seat basis will be almost impossible.