Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Ontario Election

Last week there were two new polls out in Ontario - Leger and Angus Reid.   The two polls are roughly the same in their results.  

  • Party       Leger  Angus Reid
  • Liberals  33          32
  • PCs        36          36
  • NDP       26          26
  • Green       6            5

The polls further seem to confirm each other in the regional results.

So what does mean on the ground in Ontario?   I think it means a Conservative government but not likely a majority.

When there is a three way race like this, the second and third place parties are likely to under preform in their seat count compared to their popular vote.   For the Liberals the rise of the NDP has placed a whole slate of seats into play and suddenly makes seats potentially in the PC column where they only had 1/3 of the vote last time.

I suspect that the majority of seats in this election will be won by less than a 10 percentage point margin over the second place finisher.  In 2007 only about 1/4 were won with less than a 10 percentage point margin.

So my current Ontario projection:

  • Conservatives  53 (45 - 63)
  • Liberals 33 (20 - 40)
  • NDP 21 (18 - 24)

I can not see a scenario from the polls of last of week that allows me to model a result in which the Liberals win the most seats.   For that to happen they would have to every seat in play.

There is a chance that NDP could finish the election with more seats than the Liberals.
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