Saturday, March 24, 2012

NDP 1st Ballot

Here are the first ballot results

  1. Thomas Mulcair: 30.2% (19728) 
  2. Brian Topp: 21.3% (13915) 
  3. Nathan Cullen:16.3% (10671) 
  4. Peggy Nash: 12.8% (8353) 
  5. Paul Dewar: 7.4% (4883) 
  6. Martin Singh: 5.8% (3821) 
  7. Niki Ashton: 5.7% (3737)

My observations
1) A very low voter turn out, I surprised at how low, only around 50%.  Reading the results, I think about 60% of new members voted but only 40% of existing members.   This is bad news for Nash, Dewar and Cullen.
2) I have said for ages that new sign ups matter, it looks to me that Topp and Mulcair did well there as I thought, though Martin Singh proved he understands campaigning and obviously did sign up those 6,000 he claimed.   The four all did badly on sign ups.
3) Niki Ashton had the biggest failure of the day, she should have dropped out and endorsed someone.  She should not have finished last.   If she learns from this she could recover, though her very decision to run and then not run a strong campaign does not give me the confidence she will be able to do that.  She is smart and talented, but does she have the skills needed to succeed in politics?
4) Peggy Nash, I really thought she would have more traditional member support.  
5) Nathan Cullen has seemed to pick up a lot more existing members than I thought he would, he has had enough moment to pass Nash on the 1st ballot.
6) When we look back to the 1971 leadership race, James Laxer was 29 but well organized.   He came second on the first ballot but was too far behind David Lewis to catch him.
7) With a nine point lead, given the history of Canadian leadership races, it will be almost impossible for Mulcair to lose.

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