Saturday, March 24, 2012

2nd Ballot and 3rd Ballot

Some analysis on how the vote has gone:
         Round 1        Round 2            Round 3
Mulcair 19728 30.30% 23902 38.25% +4174 27488 43.82% +3586
Topp    13915 21.37% 15624 25.00% +1709 19822 31.60% +4198
Cullen  10671 16.39% 12449 19.92% +1778 15624 24.59% +3175
Nash     8353 12.83% 10519 16.63% +3944
Dewar    4883  7.50%
Singh    3821  5.87%
Ashton   3737  5.74%
        65108        62494              62736


It is only on the third ballot that Brian Topp reached where Brian Mulcair was after the first ballot.


Thomas Mulcair has gained the most second choices so far.   I continue to be annoyed by the poll done by Paul Dewar's campaign because it was rubbish at the time and remains rubbish.    Meanwhile Nathan Cullen had a better first ballot support than expected, but he clearly was not a popular second choice for people.  


About 49% of the NDP members will be voting in this round for someone that was their second, third, fourth or lower choice on the ballot.   About 1/3 will voting for their third or lower choice on this ballot.


The final two candidates are the ones that signed up about 70% of the new members during the campaign.



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