Looking at the 12 Crown jurisdictions in Canada which have partisan elections and how the major parties stand in them:
- Party Govt Off Opp 3rd pty
- Cons and allies 6 3 1
- Liberals 4 4 3
- NDP 2 4 3
- Others 0 1 (PQ) 7 (2 Fed, 3 Que, 2 Alta)
The Liberals and Conservatives are without representation in one jurisdiction each and the NDP in two.
Since 2008 the NDP picked up one government and two official oppositions but lost one official opposition. Conservative and allies lost one government and gained one government. Liberals lost one government and two official oppositions but gained one official opposition.
Looking at where the parties are either the government or the government in waiting:
- Party 2008 2012
- Cons 9 9
- Libs 10 8
- NDP 4 6
The 2008 numbers are where it generally stood for the parties going back to the early 1990s. The biggest changes have been the return of the Liberals in BC in 1991 and the rise of the NDP as a factor in Nova Scotia and Federally. The NDP, even though they came third in Newfoundland and Labrador, should be considered a future factor in that province.
In the next couple of years the changes we are likely to see the Liberals lose governments in BC and Quebec and official opposition in Alberta dropping them to 7 overall. We are also likely to see the NDP gain one government but no change in the total.
The Liberals are dead in Saskatchewan, but they are also on life support in Manitoba where they only one seat and came second in two more, their worst result in 30 years. In Alberta the Liberals are headed into the election with levels of support they have not been down to since the 1986 election when they won 12.2% of the vote.