Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Alberta Election Turnout

For the first time since the 1989 and 1993 elections, there is something interesting going in Alberta.   I donot know enough about Alberta politics to be certain of what is going on.   I leave it to Dave Counoyer to inform me.

The one thing I do notice is the dramatic fall off in election participation.   In Alberta the one party nature of the province seems have had an impact on the turnout, that or too many new people not feeling informed enough to take part in the elections.

Here is a table of the total vote in each election and how each party has done.

Year    Total   PCs     Libs     NDP     Right 
2008   950,363 501,063 251,158  89,578  64,407 
2004   890,700 417,092 261,471  90,897  77,506 
2001 1,013,152 627,252 276,854  81,339  
1997   945,713 483,914 309,748  83,292  64,667
1993   989,025 439,981 392,899 108,883  23,885
1989   829,189 367,244 237,787 217,972
1986   713,654 366,783  87,239 208,561  36,656
1982   944,936 588,485  17,074 177,166 147,721
1979   710,963 408,097  43,792 111,984 141,284
1975   590,200 369,764  29,424  76,360 107,211
1971   639,862 296,934   6,475  73,038 262,953
1967   498,351 129,544  53,847  79,610 222,270
1963   403,444  51,278  79,709  27,133 221,107
1959   413,516  98,730  57,408  17,899 230,283
1955   378,179  34,757 117,741  31,180 175,553


Right Wing means Social Credit except for:
2008 Wildrose Alliance
2004 Alberta Alliance
1986 Representative
1982 Social Credit and two independents that were elected

If you look at the voter turn out in 2008 the total is in the same range as the turn out in 1982.   In those 26 years Alberta added more then one million people but the people are not voting.   The voter turn out in Alberta has been dramatically falling in the last couple of elections.  

So who is not voting?   I really do not know.

What I find interesting is how the total vote of the PCs mirrors the total vote in the province in the last five elections.   2008 had 60,000 more voters than 2004 and the PC vote rose by 84,000.  It is not a prefect reflection, but interestingly close.

I am curious to see if the Wildrose party being a major player in the election will change the total voter turnout?   Could they boost the totals by 200,000 or 250,000?  

The current polling seems to indicate that the total NDP and Liberal vote will be about 20-22% of the total.  If this pans out, the 'left' would have their worst result in total votes 1982 and their worst percentage of the vote since 1975.  

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