- Party 1991 1996 2001 2005 2009
- Liberals 8601 8977 13814 11368 9885
- Right Wing 7619 3110 0 0 1198
- NDP 5866 5749 2155 6534 5638
- Greens 241 220 1511 1651 951
- Others 0 5548 968 343 93
- Spoiled 408 107 94 118 95
- Total 22149 24467 18542 20014 16960
Right Wing means Social Credit in 1991, Reform in 1996 and Conservatives in 2009.
In 1996 the 5548 other vote was for incumbent MLA Bob Chisholm running as an independent..
- In 1991 and 1996 the "right" took 16,220 and 17,635 respectively.
- In 2001 there are about 2500 to 3000 New Democrat supporters that did not show up to vote, but the total vote was 6000 lower than it should have been. My estimate is that about 3000 to 3500 right wing voters did to show up to vote in 2001 because there was no conservative party on the ballot.
- In 2005 the NDP got all of their vote back and a bit more but at the same time close to 5500 to 6500 right wing voters did not show up to vote.
- The voter turn out in 2009 was very low for the riding. The total vote is lower than the "right" received in 1996. The NDP vote dropped to core level for them. Without any serious campaign, 1198 people voted Conservative. There are still about 6000 right wing voters missing.
The simple answer is the NDP can not win. There are about 18,000 people in the riding that do vote for all the time or some of the time and vote on the right side of the spectrum. If there is an even split and decent turn out the Liberals and Conservatives both get close to 9,000 votes versus the NDP at 6,500.
If either Laurie Throness or John Martin get to 10,000 votes, there is less than no hope for the NDP.
For the NDP to win, they would have to get 100% of their vote out and have the right wing voters stay home. I see no indication of this happening. If anything, we will see a lower turn out than at the provincial election and the NDP vote drop more than the others, certainly that has been the pattern in BC by-elections when it has been under question who the dominant right wing party is.
Will it be John Martin or Laurie Throness that will win? I suspect it will be John Martin but I do not have enough on the ground information to be certain.