Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Looking at some numbers out of the Alberta election


These numbers are with 1 poll unreported

Party    Vote     Vote +-  Pct  Seats +- 2008 +- dissolution
PC       567,052  +65,989 43.95%  61   -11      -5
Wildrose 442,431 +338,024 34.29%  17   +16     +13
Liberal  127,642 -123,516  9.89%   5    -4      -3
NDP      126,755  +46,177  9.82%   4    +2      +2
Alberta   17,171  +17,129  1.33%   1     0      -1
Evergreen  5,082  -38,140  0.39%   0     0       0


Year    Total   PCs     Libs     NDP     Right 
2012 1,290,216 567,052 127,642 126,755 442,431
2008   950,363 501,063 251,158  89,578  64,407 
2004   890,700 417,092 261,471  90,897  77,506 
2001 1,013,152 627,252 276,854  81,339  
1997   945,713 483,914 309,748  83,292  64,667
1993   989,025 439,981 392,899 108,883  23,885
1989   829,189 367,244 237,787 217,972
1986   713,654 366,783  87,239 208,561  36,656
1982   944,936 588,485  17,074 177,166 147,721
1979   710,963 408,097  43,792 111,984 141,284
1975   590,200 369,764  29,424  76,360 107,211
1971   639,862 296,934   6,475  73,038 262,953
1967   498,351 129,544  53,847  79,610 222,270
1963   403,444  51,278  79,709  27,133 221,107
1959   413,516  98,730  57,408  17,899 230,283
1955   378,179  34,757 117,741  31,180 175,553
Right Wing means Social Credit except for:
2012 and 2008 Wildrose
2004 Alberta Alliance
1986 Representative
1982 Social Credit and two independents that were elected

Turn out in this election seems to be about 50%, which is a dramatic improvement on 40.59% in 2008.

Alison Redford not only won the election, she got the third highest total vote for the PCs in the history of the party, 20,000 more votes and it would have been the second highest.  

I am stunned at how badly the Wildrose party did.   I really did not see 17 seats as their probable outcome, though it would taken very little for them to win 8 more seats, still that would have had them only at 25 seats.

The Liberals had their worst election by ever measure since their breakthrough in 1989.

The NDP managed to increase their vote to their highest level since the 1989 election, but their portion of the vote still did not break 10%

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