Site Cons Libs NDP Bloc Ind
Mace 131 73 81 22 1
Riding by Riding 148 65 56 38 1
Lispop 149 68 52 36
Canadian Election Watch 154 66 51 36 1
Election Almanac 148 76 48 36
Too Close to Call 145 74 47 42
DemocraticSpace 157 69 39 42 1
Threehunderdeight.com 151 75 36 45 1
Median 148/9 69/73 48/51 37/8 1
Average 147.9 70.8 51.3 37.3 0.6
(Altered from earlier in the day because of new prediction from Canadian Election Watch, twice now!)
Compared to the last prediction round up I did, the numbers are no longer nearly as consistent as it they were earlier. That round up was already less consistent between the predictions than earlier in the election
The big change is of course with the NDP and by extension the Bloc because of the NDP surge in Quebec. Eight days ago the predictions had the NDP with 31 to 38 seats and the Bloc with 38 to 50 seats. Generally the trend is that the NDP will finish with more seats than the Bloc.
The gap between the NDP and Liberals in seats has also tightened a lot. The gap is just over 20 seats now.
As to my own numbers, I am working hard to get a prediction I can be comfortable with for election day.
6 comments:
You may wish to wait until tomorrow with your prediction. Environics has the NDP at 41 in Quebec and ahead of the Liberals nationally by three points.
I've just updated my projection with tidbits from two polls. 154/69/47/37/1. There will probably be one more update tonight as EKOS is planning to release some numbers.
Election Watcher, I will update your numbers on the chart.
As to more polling numbers, the only two I am interested in - trend in Ontario and trend in BC.
Quebec, no one on this planet will be able to accurately predict the seats in this election. All we know is that a lot more seats in flux than expected.
Thanks. New EKOS poll with 33.7% Conservative and 28% NDP...
Further update including EKOS: 154-66-51-36-1
But I thought on Debate night how amazing Layton was and I sensed a certain je ne sais quoi about him. He seemed vibrant and strong and sharp. I thought then maybe there was going to be "something" big about him. He's my pick for winner of the election. Even if he only gets Opposition, he's still the winner. Even if he only grabs a few more seats in Quebec, he's a winner. I've been amazed by him this campaign.
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