Monday, April 25, 2011

Election Prediction Roundup with One Week to go

Latest round of seat projections for the election. they are sorted from most NDP seats to fewest.

Site                   Cons Libs NDP Bloc Ind
Mace                    131  73   81  22   1
Riding by Riding        148  65   56  38   1 
Lispop                  149  68   52  36
Canadian Election Watch 154  66   51  36   1
Election Almanac        148  76   48  36
Canadian Election Watch 154  69   47  37   1 
Too Close to Call       145  74   47  42
Canadian Election Watch 154  70   44  39   1 
DemocraticSpace         157  69   39  42   1
Threehunderdeight.com   151  75   36  45   1
Median               148/9 69/73 48/51 37/8 1
Average               147.9 70.8 51.3 37.3 0.6


(Altered from earlier in the day because of new prediction from Canadian Election Watch, twice now!)
Compared to the last prediction round up I did, the numbers are no longer nearly as consistent as it they were earlier.  That round up was already less consistent between the predictions than earlier in the election

The big change is of course with the NDP and by extension the Bloc because of the NDP surge in Quebec.  Eight days ago the predictions had the NDP with 31 to 38 seats and the Bloc with 38 to 50 seats.  Generally the trend is that the NDP will finish with more seats than the Bloc.  

The gap between the NDP and Liberals in seats has also tightened a lot.   The gap is just over 20 seats now.  

As to my own numbers, I am working hard to get a prediction I can be comfortable with for election day.
Post a Comment