Saturday, April 21, 2012

Some people out there are musing the losses leave the premier with a thinning majority and some potential of losing her majority.   I do not think there is any danger of this.

Current standings of the parties in the legislature once the new MLAs are sworn in:

  • Liberals 46
  • NDP 36
  • Ind 2
  • Conservatives 1

With 85 MLAs to get a majority vote the government needs 43 MLAs.    One MLA is the speaker and a member of the governing party which means the government needs 43 MLAs without him.

In the current legislature the typical vote will be 45 for the government and 39 against.  This is still a comfortable margin for the government.  

Glen Clark had 39 MLAs and the opposition had 36.  This meant the normal vote was 38 to 36, a very narrow majority but he made it work.

After the 1979 election Bill Bennett had a 31 MLAs to the NDP's 26 meaning votes were 30 to 26.   In the spring of 1981 this was 29 to 26 because of the resignation of Rafe Mair.

I would take three government MLAs crossing the floor or six resigning for the government to lose the majority.   I do not see either of those things happening.
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