Thursday, May 31, 2012

If Canada were part of the US what would happen to the Presidential Election?

Angus Reid released a poll today to see where people in Canada stand on the choices for US President.   Obama has a huge lead in Canada but since we are not part of the US, this does not change anything, but if we were how might things look?

In the US the electoral college has 538 members but if you added Canada it would rise to 606 meaning you would need 304 to win, it is 270 now.

Number of Electoral College Votes from Canadian Provinces:
  • 3 PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
  • 4 Manitoba and Saskatchewan
  • 7 Alberta
  • 8 BC
  • 13 Quebec
  • 20 Ontario
I think you can be certain that everything east of Manitoba would he solidly Democrat which gives them 45 more votes.   The 23 votes in the west would be toss ups.  Based on current Canadian opinion it would be all Democrat, but an amalgamated Canada and US would change the whole election for both countries and pull the Republicans back to the centre.

At the moment the New York Times estimate of the Electoral College is:

Candidate Solid Leading Total Short of 270
Obama      185    32     217    -53
Romney     158    48     206    -64

If we add Canada and assume that Alberta is Romney, Saskatchewan leaning Romney and the other two western provinces are toss ups
Candidate Solid Leading Total Short of 304
Obama      230    32     262    -42
Romney     165    52     217    -87

The addition of Canada makes it easier for a Democrat to win, but does not sew it up for them.   Even if all of the Canadian Electoral College votes went to Obama, he would still be 19 short of winning.   He still needs one of the big toss up states or several of the smaller ones.

The Senate would also look different.   Currently it is 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.   With Canada that would change to something like 68 Democrats and 52 Republicans, still four Senators short of the 60% needed for the Democrats to stop filibusters.

The House of Representatives would go from 435 to 480.  Currently there are 242 Republicans and 190 Democrats, 218 is the majority.   Adding Canada to that would change it to and  258 Republicans, 213 Democrats and 6 Bloc Quebecois who would likely vote with the Democrats, 241 is the majority

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