Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Rise of the NDP in New Brunswick?

The Rothesay by-election was held yesterday and the PCs managed to hold onto the seat by a decent margin.   The NDP did well, but not well enough for party leader Dominic Cardy, he wanted to win and came third, but in

     PC   Lib  NDP   Oth Govt  NDP provincewide
2012 38.3 31.3 27.3  3.1  PC 
2010 56.6 28.4  9.0  6.1  PC    10.4
2006 48.6 47.1  4.2  0.0  Lib    5.1
2003 48.0 37.6 12.1  2.2  PC     9.7
1999 65.6 25.0  9.5  0.0  PC     8.8
1995 36.0 44.8 11.6  7.8  Lib    9.7

If you look at the Rothesay (formerly Saint John-Kings) the fortunes of the NDP have been roughly the same there as the province wide results.   This would seem to indicate the fortunes for the NDP are good in New Brunswick.

Though you have to keep in mind that this is a by-election and the NDP leader was running here, still the party achieved a decent result in what seems to be a more conservative than liberal seat.   The results mirror the polling numbers in New Brunswick in which the party has been in the range of 19-23% of public support for the last year or about double what they had achieved in the 2010 election.

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