Friday, August 17, 2012

An estimate of the Quebec election

It is hard to tell if the election is going to shift or not but my best estimate is that the popular vote percentage as follows:
  • PQ    35%
  • CAQ 29%
  • Liberal 26%
  • QS  5%
  • Vert 2%
  • ON 2%
  • Others 2%
So how does this play out in seats?
  • PQ 60-65
  • CAQ 35-40
  • Liberal 20-25
  • QS 1-2
I am assuming the Liberal vote decreases to really only the non-francophones and CAQ takes in the seats the ADQ won in 2007.  As far as I can tell the most likely outcome is the PQ being on the cusp of a bare majority.

I am going to try and refine this over the next few weeks.

A third place finish for the Liberals is something they may not be able to come back from over time.

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