Friday, September 21, 2012

BC Conservatives - what they need out of this coming weekend

The defection of John Martin to the BC Liberals today is not a good sign for the party at all.  The BC Conservatives were lucky to have him as a candidate because he had local profile in Chilliwack but the party did not pull out all the stops to back him to ensure he won - he should have won.   His move only adds to the outward image of a party in chaos.   The BC Conservatives have this weekend to change that perception.

What they need out of this weekend:

  • A vote of more than 80% for John Cummins, ideally over 90%.   If John Cummins gets less than 70% he is mortally wounded and needs to step aside.   The problem is if the result is between 70% and 80%, good enough to keep him but still a party very much divided.
  • They need a very good turn out at the AGM, the rooms needed to be packed.   Ideally they need more than 1000 people to show up
  • The party needs some new people of some public stature to be at the AGM - Brain Peckford and Randy White are old news.   They need mayors of decent sized municipalities showing up.
  • They need to show that they can raise real money - they need have some event at the AGM that shows they can raise $20,000 in a night.

I am not convinced that other than a decent vote in favour of John Cummins much will come out of the AGM.   At best I think the Conservatives will come out of the AGM limping, at worst the party will effectively be over as a serious political force in BC for the 2013 election.  

The BC Conservatives have had 16 months since John Cummins became leader to build a strong party for the 2013 election, it has not happened.   The AGM will not change that.
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