Thursday, February 14, 2013

EKOS now polling BC provincial political opinion

EKOS was in the field from February 1-10th with the following headline results with changes from a poll they conducted at the end of November:

BC NDP      39.0% -2.2
BC Liberals 27.4% +3.5
BCCP        14.6% +3.2 
Greens      13.5% -5.7
Others       5.5% +0.8

The sample was 687 people of which 576 were decided voters - 83.8% decided.   I have no details of the November poll other than the headline results.  

I am not sure what to take from this poll, I would like to see at least one more from EKOS soon so that I can see in the detailed tables what their trends look like.   The numbers in this poll are significantly different than I would expect.

The EKOS numbers show the NDP lower than anyone else has in the last two years.   That seems odd to me.   The gap between the NDP and Liberals remains over 10 percentage points which is broadly consistent with other pollsters.

The results for the "other" is higher than the other pollsters have been finding.  When I crunched the numbers on what the independents might get in the election, 4% strikes me as the upper limit.   The higher result here might be a none of the above reaction.  In the 2011 federal election EKOS had among the highest "other" in their polling.

The Green results look a bit high compared with other recent polls.  EKOS seems to get better results for the Greens than others do.  In the 2011 Ontario election they had the Greens at 5.9% to 7.6% and the party managed 2.9%.   In the 2011 Federal election EKOS consistently had the Greens at higher support than most of the pollsters and significantly more than the election day results.

If the high results for the BC Conservatives and Greens are truly accurate they are important because these parties are now at popularity levels were one should expect them to win seats.    It is at over 12% support that one should expect a political party to win seats i a BC election.  Only the BC Greens in 2001 achieved more than 12% of the vote and no seats but that was a weird election because the BC Liberals took 57% of the vote.
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