Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Jane Sterk - most trusted leader in BC, but that is not the point of this posting

OK, I am involved with the Green campaign so let me delight that in yesterday's Ipsos Daily Poll Jane Sterk was the most trusted leader in BC.

Here are the numbers:
Leader       Trust Distrust Net
Jane Sterk    46    31      +15
Adrian Dix    43    54      -11
Christy Clark 31    65      -34
John Cummins  24    58      -34

I do find it interesting that Jane Sterk is doing so well when it comes to approval of her as leader or the trust in her.   On a personal level I have been impressed with Jane since I first met her nine years ago and I am glad to see other people in BC are begining to see this

Now here comes my issue of concern with this survey from Ipsos.   They had 500 people from their poll of online panelists respond and they still had to weight their responses because they got too many people aged 25-54 answering and not enough aged 18-34.   This seems methodologically wrong to me because of the reason for moving to online opt in panels in the first place.   I am already concerned that public opinion polling in the run up to this election is not being done very well.

One of the the reasons you have an online panel is that you can find the demographically correct people for the survey, you should not have to weight your results but Ipsos did and most surprisingly Ipsos could not get younger people to respond.    Only 93 people under the age of 35 answered when it should have been 142. They only achieved 2/3s of the numbers they needed for the survey.

I wish I knew how big the Ipsos pool of panelists is and how it breaks down by age and location.   I am also interested in knowing how many people were asked to respond, finally, have any of these people answered a survey for them in this election?

As much as I like being able to say "Jane Sterk, most trusted leader in BC" this survey leaves me further concerned about the quality of public opinion polling in BC

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