Monday, June 24, 2013

Party leader popularity in the various provinces

This is from the latest Angus Reid survey of what the public things of the leaders in provinces across Canada other than PEI.   There are 30 leaders on the list, 9 premiers, 9 leader of the official opposition, 9 other parties with elected representatives and 3 parties with no representation.  20 of the leaders are men, 10 are women.

I suspect the numbers for Alberta Premier will change shortly because of the floods.

Premiers in bold and underlined
Leader of the Official Opposition underlined
Parties not represented in legislatures are in italics

Ranked by Highest Approval

  1. 67% Brad Wall Saskatchewan Party - SK
  2. 57% Lorraine Michael NDP - NF
  3. 53% Dwight Ball Liberal - NF
  4. 53% Stephen McNeil Liberal - NS
  5. 49% Andrea Horwarth NDP - ON
  6. 48% Prian Pallister PC - MB
  7. 48% Danielle Smith Wildrose Party - AB
  8. 45% Francois Legault CAQ - QC
  9. 45% Christy Clark Liberal - BC
  10. 44% Cam Broten NDP - SK
  11. 44% Philippe Couillard Liberal - QC
  12. 43% Jane Sterk Green - BC
  13. 43% Kathleen Wynne Liberal - ON
  14. 40% Francoise David QS - QC
  15. 37% Bryan Gallant Liberal - NB
  16. 36% Jamie Baillie PC - NS
  17. 35% Adrian Dix NDP - BC
  18. 34% Jon Gerrard Liberal - MB
  19. 33% Brian Mason NDP - AB
  20. 33% Tim Hudak PC - ON
  21. 32% Raj Sherman Liberal - AB
  22. 31% Greg Selinger NDP - MB
  23. 30% Dominic Cardy NDP - NB
  24. 29% Alison Redrord PC - AB
  25. 28% Darrell Dexter NDP - NS
  26. 28% David Alward PC - NB
  27. 27% Pauline Marois PQ - QC
  28. 26% Kathy Dunderdale PC - NF
  29. 17% Victor Lau Green - SK
  30. 17% John Cummins Conservative - BC

Ranked by net of approval and disapproval

  1. +40 Brad Wall Saskatchewan Party - SK
  2. +29 Dwight Ball Liberal - NF
  3. +26 Lorraine Michael NDP - NF
  4. +24 Stephen McNeil Liberal - NS
  5. +17 Cam Broten NDP - SK
  6. +15 Andrea Horwarth NDP - ON
  7. +15 Jane Sterk Green - BC
  8. +14 Brian Pallister PC - MB
  9. +9 Brian Gallant Liberal - NB
  10. +7 Danielle Smith Wildrose Party - AB
  11. +4 Philippe Couillard Liberal - QC
  12. +3 Dominic Cardy NDP - NB
  13. +2 Kathleen Wynne Liberal - ON
  14. +1 Francois Legault CAQ - QC
  15. -1 Jon Gerrard Liberal - MB
  16. -3 Fraincoise David QS - QC
  17. -4 Christy Clark Liberal - BC
  18. -4 Jamie Baillie PC - NS
  19. -11 Brian Mason NDP - AB
  20. -11 Victor Lau Green - SK
  21. -14 Raj Sherman Liberal - AB
  22. -20 Tim Hudak PC - ON
  23. -22 Adrian Dix NDP - BC
  24. -30 Greg Selinger NDP - MB
  25. -32 David Alward PC - NB
  26. -36 Alison Redford PC - AB
  27. -40 Pauline Marois PQ - QC
  28. -37 Darrell Dexter NDP - NS
  29. -41 John Cummins Conservative BC
  30. -42 Kathy Dunderdale PC - NF


Seven of the bottom eight on the list are sitting premiers.  Up until recently that would have included Christy Clark.   I suspect she may be in a honeymoon period and will drop in numbers in the fall of this year.   I am wondering if disapproval of the sitting government is the new norm in Canada and that as election day rolls around the public puts aside that disapproval and votes for the government again.   Polling in the Quebec, Alberta and BC elections indicated the government should have been going down to a major defeat.   Only in Quebec did the government lose but even then they did much better than anyone had expected.

Premier's approval versus leader of the Official Opposition
Prov  Prem  Opp   Net
SK    67%   44%   +23
BC    45%   35%   +10
ON    43%   33%   +10
NB    28%   37%    -9
MB    31%   48%   -17
QC    27%   44%   -17
AB    29%   48%   -19
NS    28%   53%   -25
NF    26%   57%   -31

Only in three of the nine provinces do the premiers have a higher approval rating than the leader of the official opposition.   I would have traditionally thought that in Nova Scotia the NDP was doomed but I am no longer certain of that outcome even with the bad polling numbers for Premier Dexter.


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