Friday, September 27, 2013

Nova Scotia Election

I admit I do not know enough about the province to have a useful analysis of what is happening on the ground.  I am trusting Eric Grenier to do that.  His latest projection is that the Liberals will win a large majority and the PCs will be reduced to 3 seats.  I do have a couple of observations:

1) Corporate Research Associates is polling for the Halifax Chronicle Hearld and releasing updated numbers everyday.   They are calling about 100 people per night so the data they release each day is the last six nights of calls.

What I am seeing is the NDP holding steady at 27-29% but the Liberals consistently rising and the PCs consistently falling.   Over the last week the Liberals have gained 9 points and the PCs have lost 5.  Is there a flight to the Liberals to stop the NDP in Nova Scotia?   I find that hard to accept given I do not think anyone believes Dexter will win again.   I am not watching close enough to know why this is happening.

2) Until 1998 Nova Scotia was effectively a two party province with the Liberals and the PCs taking 80+% of the vote in most elections.   With the breakthrough of the NDP in 1998 things have changed with the NDP taking around 1/3 of the vote in four elections and then winning in 2009.   2013 may once again be a realignment of Nova Scotia politics.  

The PCs are polling south of 20% and seem to in danger of being reduced to a tiny caucus of three MLAs.    It seems to me that only Argyle-Barrington is a clear PC seat.   I think PC leader Jim Baillie is going to be out of a job in a short time because such a rising Liberal tide will cost him Cumberland South.

What is the future of the PCs if they get less than 20% of the vote and have a caucus of only one to three MLAs?

3) If the Liberals win with more than 50% of the vote, that will be the first time any government has managed to get the support of the majority of the voting population since 1984.  They could potentially have the highest popular vote since 1925

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