Monday, September 16, 2013

Predicting the Four Federal By-Elections

At some point this fall there will be four federal by-elections in Boursassa, Brandon-Souris, Provencher and Toronto Centre.  Two of them were held by the Liberals and two of them by the Conservatives and in all four there has not been a serious competitive race in a long time.

We still do not know who many of the candidates will be or when they by-elections will be held, but here is an attempt to predict the outcomes of these four federal by-elections:

       Bourassa   Brandon Souris Provencher Toronto Centre Total
CPC     1,500  4%  10,000 50%    12,000 69%   3,000  8%    26,500
NDP     6,000 24%   5,000 25%     3,750 21%  15,000 38%    29,750
Liberal 8,000 32%   2,000 10%     1,250  7%  17,000 43%    28,250
Green   7,500 28%   3,000 15%       500  3%   5,000 13%    16,000
Bloc    3,000 12%                                           3,000
total  25,000      20,000        17,500      40,000       102,500

As you can see I do not think that any of the four will change hands but I do think the Liberals have the potential to lose both Bourassa and Toronto Centre.

In the case of Bourassa the most important factor in the race is Green Georges Laraque.   Without him as the candidate I think the total turnout would only about 19,000.   His entry into the race as a well known name and a Green seriously trying to get elected will have a significant impact on voter turnout as happened in London North Centre in 2006 and in Victoria 2012.

I am not yet sure how to call Toronto Centre now that we know who the NDP and Liberal candidates are.   It will be a hard fought race and take up a lot of the resources of both parties.   It is only because the NDP nominated Linda McQuaig that I think they have any chance here.   
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