Monday, October 7, 2013

MPs elected with less than 1/3 of the vote

I am going back to 1984 and over those eight elections I found 30 instances where someone was elected MP with less than 1/3 of the vote.  For someone to be elected with less than 1/3 of the vote it takes at least four candidates winning a reasonable portion of the vote.   For someone to win with less than 30% of the vote, which has happened four times in the last nine elections, it takes four decent strength candidates


  1. 26.75% Brad Trost Conservative Saskatoon Humboldt 2004 (sitting MP Jim Pankiw ran as an independent)
  2. 28.11% Howard Hillstrom Reform Selkirk Interlake 1997
  3. 28.93% Louise Hardy NDP Yukon 1997
  4. 29.34% Paul Forseth Reform New Westmister Burnaby 1993
  5. 30.34% Allan Kerpan Reform Moose Jaw Lake Centre 1993
  6. 30.37% Peter Stoffer NDP Sackville—Musquodoboit Valley—Eastern Shore 1997
  7. 31.03% Hedy Fry Liberal Vancouver Centre 2011
  8. 31.10% Vic Althouse NDP Mackenzie 1993
  9. 31.19% Hedy Fry Liberal Vancouver Centre 1993
  10. 31.34% Len Taylor NDP Battlefords Meadow Lake 1993
  11. 31.47% Chris Axworthy NDP Saskatoon Clark's Crossing 1993
  12. 31.73% Marlene Cowling Liberal Dauphin Swan River 1993
  13. 31.80% Maria Mourani Bloc Ahuntsic 2011
  14. 32.19% Bernie Collins Liberal Souris Moose Mountain 1993
  15. 32.22% Frank Valeriote Liberal Guelph 2008
  16. 32.47% Larry Bagnell Liberal Yukon 2000
  17. 32.49% Thomas Suluk PC Nunatsiaq 1984 (sitting MP ran as an indepedent)
  18. 32.49% Jim Gouk Reform Kootenay West Revelstoke 1993
  19. 32.57% Wendy Lill NDP Dartmouth 1997
  20. 32.59% Alexandra Mendes Liberal Brossard La Prairie 2008
  21. 32.67% Marcel Proulx Liberal Hull Aylmer 2006
  22. 32.68% Garry Breitkreuz Reform Yorkton Melville 1993
  23. 32.80% Lawrence Cannon Conservative Pontiac 2008
  24. 32.82% Gurmant Grewal Conservative Newton North Delta 2004
  25. 32.87% Paul Forseth Conservative New Westminster Coquitlam 2004
  26. 32.91% Beth Pinney Liberal Hamilton Mountain 1988
  27. 32.91% Malcolm Allen NDP Welland 2008
  28. 32.99% Judy Bethel Liberal Edmonton East 1993
  29. 33.06% Glen McKinnon Liberal Brandon Souris 1993
  30. 33.07% Jim Pankiw Reform Saskatoon Humboldt 1997
  31. 33.21% Colin Carrie Conservative Oshawa 2004

Two people are on the list twice -
Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre in her first election in 1993 and in her latest in 2011.
Paul Forseth in New Westminster-Burnaby in 1993 and then in New Westminster Coquitlam in 2004

In 1993 all 12 people elected with less than a 1/3 of the vote were in Western Canada.  

Listing them by years
1993 12
1997 5
2008 5
2004 3
2011 2
1984 1
1988 1
2000 1
2006 1

By province
8 Saskatchewan 
6 BC  
4 Quebec 
4 Ontario 
3 Manitoba 
2 Yukon 
2 Nova Scotia
1 NWT 
1 Alberta 

By Party
11 Liberals 
 7 NDP
 6 Reform 
 6 Conservatives 
 1 Bloc
 1 PCs 

The winning party in the election has win 9 of the close races, the opposition 22.

I am surprised not to see more results from Quebec under the 1/3 mark.   It seems that in Quebec the races are almost always two party even when the province elects MPs from four different political parties.
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