Wednesday, October 30, 2013

November 25th by-election predictions

I currently believe that all the seats will be retained by the party that won it in the last election.  I am using what data I can get - past election results, past by-election turnouts, impact of candidates, riding level polls, current political scene, candidates, and local media.

Bourassa
Emmanuel Duborg    Libs 10,000 46.5%
Stephanie Moraille NDP   5,000 23.3%
Daniel Duranleau   Bloc  4,000 18.6%
Danny Polifroni    Green 1,500  7.0%
Rida Mahmoud       Cons  1,000  4.7%

Brandon Souris
Larry Maguire    Cons 10,000 45.5%
Rolf Dinsdale    Libs  7,500 34.1%
Cory Szczepanski NDP   3,150 14.3%
David Neufeld    Green 1,250  5.7%
Frank Godon  Libertarian 100  0.5%

Provencher
Ted Falk                  Cons 10,000 62.5%
Terry Hayward             Libs  3,600 22.5%
Natalie Courcelles Beaudry NDP  1,600 10.0%
Janine Gibson             Green   800  5.0%

Toronto Centre
Chrystia Freeland Libs 17,000 48.6%
Linda McQuaig     NDP  11,350 32.4%
John Deverell     Green 3,500 10.0% 
Geoff Pollock     Cons  3,000  8.6% 
Dorian Baxter     PC       75  0.2%
Leslie Bory       Ind      75  0.2%

Overall
Liberals      38,100 40.3%
Conservatives 24,000 25.4%
NDP           21,100 22.3%
Green          7,050  7.5%
Bloc           4,000  4.2%
Others           250  0.3%






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