He will be taking it live and available to the public in the near future, the new version will also have an important change from past versions, you will be able to work with non-voters as part of the mix as well.
Sacha Peter has pointed out that the transition of polls is not 100% accurate because some polls have new boundaries and have been split between ridings. The only riding where this might have made a difference is in Maple Ridge Mission which I have as the NDP winning and he has the Liberals barely winning.
I have the Liberals at 48 (up two) and the NDP at 37 (up four)
In 2005 the Liberals won 18 of their seats by less than 10% and the NDP 15. With the transposed boundaries this changes to Liberals 16 and the NDP 19 - the NDP is defending more territory than the Liberals.
The 'safe' seats for each party in 2005 was as follows, 28 Liberal and 18 NDP. With the 2009 boundaries this changes to Liberals 32 and NDP 18. The Liberals are much closer to the target number of 43 than the NDP is.
So the new boundaries on the surface give the NDP more seats that they would have won in 2005, but at the same time gives the Liberals a larger safe core of seats.
| Constituency | Political Parties | ||||
| LIB | NDP | GRP | OTR | ||
| Vancouver-Mount Pleasant | 20.40% | 65.00% | 10.30% | 4.30% | |
| Surrey-Green Timbers | 29.60% | 63.60% | 4.00% | 2.70% | |
| Kootenay West | 26.50% | 62.40% | 7.60% | 3.50% | |
| Surrey-Newton | 33.10% | 59.80% | 5.30% | 1.80% | |
| Nelson-Creston | 26.70% | 58.90% | 12.30% | 2.00% | |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | 30.00% | 57.30% | 11.30% | 1.50% | |
| Alberni-Pacific Rim | 32.00% | 56.90% | 7.20% | 3.80% | |
| Surrey-Whalley | 30.40% | 56.50% | 7.00% | 6.00% | |
| Victoria-Swan Lake | 30.20% | 56.10% | 11.50% | 2.20% | |
| Vancouver-Hastings | 32.10% | 54.80% | 9.00% | 4.20% | |
| North Coast | 39.60% | 52.30% | 6.20% | 1.90% | |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | 39.80% | 51.80% | 8.40% | 0.00% | |
| Vancouver-Kingsway | 40.30% | 51.50% | 6.30% | 1.90% | |
| New Westminster | 37.40% | 51.30% | 9.40% | 1.90% | |
| Equimalt-Royal Roads | 37.00% | 51.20% | 10.20% | 1.60% | |
| Nanaimo-North Cowichan | 37.10% | 50.80% | 9.80% | 2.30% | |
| Skeena | 44.10% | 49.50% | 4.60% | 1.80% | |
| Vancouver-Kensington | 42.90% | 49.30% | 6.00% | 1.80% | |
| Port Coquitlam | 43.40% | 48.40% | 6.90% | 1.30% | |
| Burnaby-Edmonds | 40.50% | 48.10% | 9.70% | 1.70% | |
| Juan de Fuca | 36.30% | 47.60% | 10.60% | 5.40% | |
| Surrey-Fleetwood | 44.60% | 47.60% | 4.60% | 3.30% | |
| Delta North | 42.90% | 47.50% | 7.70% | 1.90% | |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin | 44.20% | 47.30% | 5.30% | 3.20% | |
| Cowichan Valley | 42.50% | 47.30% | 7.50% | 2.80% | |
| Fraser-Nicola | 42.50% | 47.20% | 8.20% | 2.10% | |
| Cariboo North | 45.80% | 47.10% | 5.30% | 1.80% | |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville | 44.50% | 47.00% | 6.50% | 2.10% | |
| Vancouver-Fairview | 43.00% | 46.80% | 9.00% | 1.20% | |
| Vancouver-West End | 37.40% | 46.30% | 13.80% | 2.60% | |
| Burnaby North | 45.00% | 45.50% | 7.80% | 1.70% | |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | 43.60% | 45.40% | 7.50% | 3.50% | |
| Nanaimo | 42.50% | 45.40% | 9.90% | 2.20% | |
| Kamloops-North Thompson | 43.20% | 45.30% | 7.10% | 4.40% | |
| Saanich South | 45.50% | 45.30% | 7.20% | 2.10% | |
| North Island | 42.80% | 45.20% | 7.40% | 4.60% | |
| Maple Ridge-Mission | 44.10% | 44.50% | 8.80% | 2.50% | |
| Burnaby-Lougheed | 46.90% | 44.10% | 7.90% | 1.00% | |
| Kootenay East | 47.90% | 43.80% | 8.30% | | |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | 30.20% | 43.50% | 25.70% | 0.60% | |
| Stikine | 46.60% | 43.50% | 5.50% | 4.40% | |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | 46.60% | 43.30% | 8.50% | 1.60% | |
| Comox Valley | 45.70% | 43.10% | 9.20% | 2.00% | |
| Vancouver-Fraserview | 47.70% | 42.70% | 6.60% | 3.00% | |
| Port Moody-Coquitlam | 48.80% | 42.00% | 6.80% | 2.40% | |
| Surrey-Tynehead | 48.70% | 41.60% | 5.40% | 4.20% | |
| Boundary-Similkameen | 45.70% | 40.80% | 9.50% | 4.00% | |
| Burnaby-Deer Lake | 46.50% | 40.70% | 7.80% | 5.00% | |
| Surrey-Panorama | 50.70% | 40.30% | 7.80% | 1.20% | |
| North Vancouver-Lonsdale | 45.40% | 39.10% | 12.40% | 3.10% | |
| Parksville-Qualicum | 51.90% | 38.40% | 8.10% | 1.50% | |
| Vancouver-Point Grey | 46.30% | 37.60% | 14.90% | 1.20% | |
| Vancouver-False Creek | 48.70% | 37.50% | 11.40% | 2.30% | |
| Saanich North and the Islands | 43.70% | 37.50% | 15.30% | 3.40% | |
| Chilliwack-Hope | 52.10% | 37.40% | 8.50% | 2.00% | |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | 54.50% | 37.40% | 6.10% | 2.10% | |
| Penticton | 49.70% | 37.10% | 10.40% | 2.80% | |
| Kamloops-South Thompson | 52.40% | 36.80% | 7.20% | 3.70% | |
| Prince George-Mackenzie | 49.30% | 36.60% | 7.60% | 6.60% | |
| Nechako Lakes | 50.20% | 36.20% | 8.00% | 5.50% | |
| Shuswap | 46.70% | 35.40% | 5.90% | 12.10% | |
| Prince George-Valemount | 45.70% | 35.30% | 7.80% | 11.20% | |
| Abbotsford-Mission | 53.80% | 34.70% | 9.20% | 2.30% | |
| Peace River South | 56.30% | 34.00% | 9.70% | | |
| Langley | 52.20% | 33.60% | 12.30% | 1.90% | |
| Chilliwack | 54.80% | 33.60% | 8.40% | 3.20% | |
| Vernon-Monashee | 43.40% | 33.40% | 7.10% | 16.10% | |
| Richmond East | 57.30% | 33.20% | 7.50% | 2.00% | |
| Vancouver-Langara | 56.50% | 33.00% | 8.00% | 2.40% | |
| Richmond Centre | 58.60% | 32.50% | 7.70% | 1.20% | |
| Abbotsford West | 58.30% | 31.30% | 6.60% | 3.80% | |
| Kelowna-Mission | 54.70% | 31.30% | 12.50% | 1.50% | |
| Richmond-Steveston | 59.30% | 31.20% | 8.30% | 1.20% | |
| Westside-Kelowna | 52.30% | 30.60% | 11.70% | 5.40% | |
| Abbotsford South | 58.90% | 30.20% | 7.70% | 3.20% | |
| Kelowna-Lake Country | 51.70% | 30.00% | 9.60% | 8.70% | |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | 60.40% | 30.00% | 8.40% | 1.20% | |
| North Vancouver-Seymour | 57.30% | 29.40% | 11.80% | 1.50% | |
| Fort Langley-Aldergrove | 59.10% | 29.10% | 9.70% | 2.10% | |
| Peace River North | 60.20% | 26.90% | 7.10% | 5.80% | |
| Surrey-White Rock | 58.00% | 26.40% | 10.60% | 5.10% | |
| Delta South | 37.50% | 24.00% | 4.70% | 33.90% | |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky | 48.20% | 22.70% | 27.10% | 2.00% | |
| Vancouver-Quilchena | 67.20% | 21.00% | 10.40% | 1.40% | |
| West Vancouver-Capilano | 67.30% | 17.90% | 13.30% | 1.60% | |
2 comments:
You should check Surrey-Fleetwood again. I've done the numbers twice and the NDP comes ahead by ~110 votes in 2005 but I don't believe that equates to as much as a 3% winning margin. BJ
Sorry, that should read ~150 votes in reference to my previous post. BJ
Post a Comment