Tuesday, April 17, 2007

New SES poll

Very interesting numbers in this poll. I would say that the ADQ is the future of Quebec and this is being reflected in the CPC being strong in this poll.

If the CPC becomes the main party in Quebec along with the West, this means that the CPC is likely to be the new natural governing party........



Bloc Supporters would Tilt to Tories and NDP
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Nik on the numbers...

As many of you know, our objective at SES Research is to provide added insight into Canada's political scene.

With the drop in PQ support in Quebec and the poor performance of PQ Leader Andre Boisclair we may be seeing changes in Quebec. What would happen to BQ support if, for example, Gilles Duceppe left the party to seek the PQ leadership? What would happen if BQ support dropped significantly?

To that end, SES added an extra question to its latest omnibus survey. Quite simply, we asked committed BQ supporters who they would vote for federally if the BQ did not exist.

As you know, this is a hypothetical situation but it does instruct observers as to the potential future movement of voters.

In a nutshell, the absence of the BQ would likely move the Conservatives into majority territory. They would lead in Quebec with the support of 41% of voters followed by the NDP and the Liberals who would be statistically tied (23% and 21% respectively). BQ committed voters would move to the Conservatives (who pick up 13 points), the NDP (who pick up 10 points), the Green Party (who pick up 8 points) and the Liberals (who pick up 3 points). Factoring the margin of accuracy for the sub sample the discernable movement is to the Tories and the NDP and to a lesser extent to the Greens.

My read is that the departure of Gilles Duceppe to the Quebec political scene and any weakening of the BQ would result in a major political realignment. The old federal battle lines between sovereigntists and federalists in Quebec would be weakened.

Truly some food for thought.

You can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue on my blog at www.nikonthenumbers.com.


Methodology

Polling between March 31st and April 5th, 2007 (random telephone survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The margin of accuracy will be wider for subgroup samples. Readers should note that the data was weighted for age to match the latest Canadian census results. Results should be considered representative of the populations surveyed. Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


[Bloc voters only] If the Bloc Quebecois did not exist federally and you had to choose between the federal [rotate] Liberals, Conservatives, NDP or Green Party, which federal party would you vote for? Values in parenthesis represent the change in support if the BQ did not exist.

Canada without Bloc (N=910, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 39% (+3)
Liberal 34% (+1)
NDP 19% (+3)
Green Party 8% (+2)
None 1% (0)

Quebec without Bloc (N=230, MoE ± 6.5%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 41% (+13)
Liberal 21% (+3)
NDP 23% (+10)
Green Party 12% (+8)
None 4% (0)


The detailed tables with the Quebec sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com.

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the "SES Research National Survey."

Cheers,

n
Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO


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This email was sent to bernard@shama.ca, by nnanos@sesresearch.com


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