This is an interesting question to look at when the party is polling in the 8 to 10% range.
Here are the ridings I believe they have a chance in:
Esquimalt Juan de Fuca:
This has been a three way race for several elections now. A strong Green here could win with as little as 30% of the vote. I believe that this riding could be won if Jane Sterk were to run for the Greens and have a good campaign team. I believe this is the top riding for the Greens in Canada for a win.
Central Nova
Elizabeth May is being taken seriously by the media. She also did well in the London North by-election. The riding is also one that is not as strongly Conservative as one would expect.
There is no Liberal here and a tacit endorsement of May by the Liberals.
The Conservatives are also taking a lot of heat in Atlantic Canada.
Ottawa Centre
This riding has had a stronger Green result and is not just an NDP - Liberal race, the Conservatives do exist here to split the vote several ways. In a four way race, one can win with a vote less than 30% of the vote. Long shot here.
All Three London Ridings:
The races are split between the major parties and Elizabeth May placed second in the London North Centre by - election. A strong London region campaign with good candidates gives the Greens some chance for a good result here.
Guelph
Existing three way and a decent result from the Greens in 2006. If the Liberals lose votes here, the Greens could pick them up. They could also gain NDP vote if the NDP is seen as pointless.
Victoria:
This riding is unlikely to be lost by the NDP, but it is one that is winnable by the Greens because it is a three way race at the moment and the Greens have team of people ready to campaign. Once Denise Savoie is gone, this riding is very winnable by the Greens.
Saanich and the Gulf Islands:
Not much chance of the Greens winning this riding. Gary Lunn is not likely to lose this riding. Even though his percentage of the vote has been low in the last two elections, he still won by more than 10% points in the last election. The Liberals and the NDP are not strong enough to make a race of this riding. The Liberals have had this one on their radar in each election since 1993 and at best got less than 1/3 of the vote.
With falling Liberal fortunes in Canada and rising Conservative polling numbers, this is not a riding that the government will lose.
For a Green to win here, they would have to get 40%+ of the vote, an unrealistic task.
Bruce Grey Owen Sound
The Ontario Greens just scored 33% here in the provincial election placing a strong second. In the last federal election this was the best Green result in Canada. But, this is a Conservative riding by nature, the poster child for why PC and Reform/Alliance voting splitting helped the Liberals. For the Greens to win here they would have to get close to 50% of the vote. No chance of this.
Oshawa
This is a three way race at the moment. A strong Green here could make it a four way race and win with a low percentage. Still a long shot.
Hamilton East Stoney Creek
Once again a riding with a a chance to make it a four way race
Welland
Another existing three way
Alberta:
No chance of any wins here, but a strong chance of placing second in many ridings. If I were to choose an Alberta riding for the Greens, I would look at Calgary Centre
Saturday, October 20, 2007
What might a federal election outcome look like?
Looking at the polls of late and how things are going, I suspect that a federal election result would look as follows:
The NDP suffers from having won 9 seats with less than 40% of the vote and having the number 2 party within 10% of them in 12 seats. They have a lot more seats that are marginal. This really comes through with their seats in Ontario.
The actual election campaign is also going to make some major differences to the results.
Having seen the leaders in action, Harper is very good at being able to run a campaign. Dion is weak, very weak. Layton tries so hard but always seems slightly fake. And finally the BQ - will this party begin to go the way of the Creditistes and become a decreasing rump?
What I would see happening in an election going east to west:
Atlantic Canada:
I believe the NDP will be able to hold their three seats. The Conservatives have a problem in the region but have an advantage because they do not have that many seats that they could lose. I see the Conservatives holding 5 seats. This will leave the Liberals with 24 seats.
Quebec:
What will federalists do? I believe that the ADQ - Union Nationale - Creditiste type of bleu vote will solidify with the Conservatives. The Liberals will be reduce to urban Montreal and facing the NDP as their main opposition there. I see the BQ losing seats. I see Arthur Andre losing to the Bleu vote for the Conservatives
CPC - 20
Liberals - 13
NDP - 1
BQ - 41
Ontario:
This will be an interesting location to see how they go. The latest provincial election does not bode well for the Conservatives, but McGiunty is not Dion and Harper is not Tory.
I see the NDP being squeezed in Ontario as the Liberals pull them in. The NDP does not have the long term incumbency in many of the ridings they won in 2006. I see them holding 5 ridings.
At the same time the fear of Harper is reduced. I think he can gain a lot of 905 and rural Ontario. I see the election creating a ground swell for Harper and against the Liberal pandering to the have not provinces. I see the Conservatives taking 65 seats.
This leaves the Liberals with 37 in Ontario, their worst result since 1984.
Manitoba:
I believe the Conservatives will gain votes here but not a lot of seats, only two from the Liberals for a total of 10. NDP should be able to hold their three.
Saskatchewan:
No space for the Conservatives to grow here. There are two Liberal seats that could go to the Conservatives. 13 and Ralph Goodale
Alberta:
Remains 28 for Harper
BC:
This will be an interesting province. The polls have been showing a rising support for the Conservatives and dead heat for the Liberals and NDP. The right had its worst result for seats in 2006 since 1988. The Conservatives had a higher vote in 2006 than 2004 but lost seats. The Conservatives have a lot more safe seats in BC.
The NDP has a reasonably firm grip on a number of their seats, but one only need look at 1993 to see how wins turn into losses.
The Liberals have more weak wins than the other parties and will have to work hard to defend their gains.
I see the Conservatives taking 25 seats, the NDP 7 and the Liberals 4.
The North:
I see the Conservatives winning Nunavut and the other two remaining the same as before, so one riding each
National Result:
- Conservatives 155
- Liberals 90
- Bloc 47
- NDP 16
The NDP suffers from having won 9 seats with less than 40% of the vote and having the number 2 party within 10% of them in 12 seats. They have a lot more seats that are marginal. This really comes through with their seats in Ontario.
The actual election campaign is also going to make some major differences to the results.
Having seen the leaders in action, Harper is very good at being able to run a campaign. Dion is weak, very weak. Layton tries so hard but always seems slightly fake. And finally the BQ - will this party begin to go the way of the Creditistes and become a decreasing rump?
What I would see happening in an election going east to west:
Atlantic Canada:
I believe the NDP will be able to hold their three seats. The Conservatives have a problem in the region but have an advantage because they do not have that many seats that they could lose. I see the Conservatives holding 5 seats. This will leave the Liberals with 24 seats.
Quebec:
What will federalists do? I believe that the ADQ - Union Nationale - Creditiste type of bleu vote will solidify with the Conservatives. The Liberals will be reduce to urban Montreal and facing the NDP as their main opposition there. I see the BQ losing seats. I see Arthur Andre losing to the Bleu vote for the Conservatives
CPC - 20
Liberals - 13
NDP - 1
BQ - 41
Ontario:
This will be an interesting location to see how they go. The latest provincial election does not bode well for the Conservatives, but McGiunty is not Dion and Harper is not Tory.
I see the NDP being squeezed in Ontario as the Liberals pull them in. The NDP does not have the long term incumbency in many of the ridings they won in 2006. I see them holding 5 ridings.
At the same time the fear of Harper is reduced. I think he can gain a lot of 905 and rural Ontario. I see the election creating a ground swell for Harper and against the Liberal pandering to the have not provinces. I see the Conservatives taking 65 seats.
This leaves the Liberals with 37 in Ontario, their worst result since 1984.
Manitoba:
I believe the Conservatives will gain votes here but not a lot of seats, only two from the Liberals for a total of 10. NDP should be able to hold their three.
Saskatchewan:
No space for the Conservatives to grow here. There are two Liberal seats that could go to the Conservatives. 13 and Ralph Goodale
Alberta:
Remains 28 for Harper
BC:
This will be an interesting province. The polls have been showing a rising support for the Conservatives and dead heat for the Liberals and NDP. The right had its worst result for seats in 2006 since 1988. The Conservatives had a higher vote in 2006 than 2004 but lost seats. The Conservatives have a lot more safe seats in BC.
The NDP has a reasonably firm grip on a number of their seats, but one only need look at 1993 to see how wins turn into losses.
The Liberals have more weak wins than the other parties and will have to work hard to defend their gains.
I see the Conservatives taking 25 seats, the NDP 7 and the Liberals 4.
The North:
I see the Conservatives winning Nunavut and the other two remaining the same as before, so one riding each
National Result:
- Conservatives 164
- Liberals 81
- Bloc 41
- NDP 20
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