TILMA - The First Step That is Needed

TILMA, the Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement between Alberta and BC is the first step that is needed in North America. As a continent we are doing ourselves huge economic harm by building restrictions into how we can conduct business.

I know on the left there are a lot of people decrying this agreement, especially the Council of Canadians. But there is nothing there to back up what they are suggesting is going to happen. TILMA is similar to some of the provisions within the EU, I was dealing with these back in the early 1990s. As far as I can see, allowing investment, people and trade to move around Europe is not doing any harm to anyone.

What we need to see is expansion of TILMA now, immediately. This expansion needs to include the US, Canadian and Mexican federal governments and all of the states and provinces. We need to move to a situation where we have free movement of people between all three countries, we need our own Schengen agreement.

The US has dragged its heals every step of the way with respect to free trade and free movement of people - we need to push them on this now. The free movement of people will quickly raise the living standards in Mexico. A proper agreement would allow Canadians and Americans to own land in Mexico without restriction - Mexico would see a boom of snowbirds.

I am still amazed the US passed NAFTA with the chapter 11 provision. I am glad that there there is something out there that protects people and business from arbitrary and unfair attacks from the government. So far that chapter has done a lot to force governments to consult more and act in a fair and consistent manner.

I dream of TILMA extending from the arctic to the tropics. I would love to see Mexican companies getting contracts to work here. We would also have a lot less problems with finding people to do the jobs no one in Canada wants to do.

Really what is needed is a return of the Multi-lateral Agreement on Investment. If the MAI had been completed ten years ago, we would have seen even more people manage to rise above poverty in the developing world. The defeat of the MAI condemned hundreds of millions of people in countries like India and Pakistan to ongoing enduring poverty. Ever trade and business liberalization is a step forward for eliminating poverty.

TILMA will reduce poverty in BC and Alberta by making government more efficient, by allowing an easier flow of workers from one province to the other, and by giving people wanting to start a business the confidence that this is a place where they have some certainty.

For the moment we have to accept that TIMLA is only here in the west, though this will make BC and Alberta a more cohesive economic unit and one that clearly outweighs Quebec and with this will follow a lot more political power and Quebec will matter less federally that it does now.

Yes, it really is sinking

With the two Davids, Gregor Robinson, Michael Sather and Corky all not running again, the NDP will be going into the election with only 27 incumbents. All five of the retiring MLAs (how do you retire after just one term - with the exception of Corky Evans? Why run if you did not want to be there) are ones that would likely have been cabinet material and all five were among the stronger campaigners the party has.

The retirement of these guys is like have your team in the off season, after having missed the playoffs, have the first line all retire at once.

The NDP has obviously given up on being relevant in the 2009 election, they are happy with Gordon Campbell and giving him a free pass for the next election. As much as I like Campbell and think he is the best premier we have had, I think good governance demands an opposition that could form government and acts like they want to hold the government to account. Campbell's problems in the first term all stem from the NDP not being able to figure out how to be the opposition.

Frankly, it is too late for the NDP to get rid of James, the NDP needs to get rid of itself. The party has no relevance in BC politics and is only taking up space that could usefully be filled by people interested in good governance and a better BC.

A Sinking Ship?

The NDP looks like it is for a drubbing in the next provincial election. My estimate is that they will be reduced to 13 MLAs, plus or minus 3. The party is complete disarray in the run up to the election without any sort of plan for election or the semblance of a platform.

The NDP has become the brownest party in BC having been outmaneuvered on the environment by the Liberals ever step of the way.

And on top of this two MLAs, David Cubberley and David Chudnovsky. have announced they are not running again, and both of them among the handful of sitting MLAs that have the skills to serve in a cabinet. Clearly both of them think the NDP is going to get hosed in May and a minimum of another four years in opposition is not going to be any fun at all.

Both the ridings they are in, Saanich South and Vancouver Kensington, are most likely to be won by the Liberals in May. Cubberley was clearly going to lose no matter what he did, but I would have given Chudnovsky a fighting chance in Kensington. But now the NDP is not likely to win either one.

The only thing the NDP could do now to change things is to completely replace everyone in the leadership. Carole James should do the smart thing for the party and resign now.

After the election I expect to see 72 Liberals, 13 New Democrats and one Green - I figure Jane Sterk has a decent chance to win in Esquimalt Royal Roads.