The NDP looks like it is for a drubbing in the next provincial election. My estimate is that they will be reduced to 13 MLAs, plus or minus 3. The party is complete disarray in the run up to the election without any sort of plan for election or the semblance of a platform.
The NDP has become the brownest party in BC having been outmaneuvered on the environment by the Liberals ever step of the way.
And on top of this two MLAs, David Cubberley and David Chudnovsky. have announced they are not running again, and both of them among the handful of sitting MLAs that have the skills to serve in a cabinet. Clearly both of them think the NDP is going to get hosed in May and a minimum of another four years in opposition is not going to be any fun at all.
Both the ridings they are in, Saanich South and Vancouver Kensington, are most likely to be won by the Liberals in May. Cubberley was clearly going to lose no matter what he did, but I would have given Chudnovsky a fighting chance in Kensington. But now the NDP is not likely to win either one.
The only thing the NDP could do now to change things is to completely replace everyone in the leadership. Carole James should do the smart thing for the party and resign now.
After the election I expect to see 72 Liberals, 13 New Democrats and one Green - I figure Jane Sterk has a decent chance to win in Esquimalt Royal Roads.
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